NFL Teaser Analysis

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Sports betting has become part of the mainstream media at this point.  Point spreads and over/unders are routinely displayed on television and discussed on radio when discussing upcoming games.  One bet type that doesn’t get as much attention is a teaser bet but it is becoming more and more popular.  What many people may not know is that you can analyze teaser bets with the Bet Labs software with a simple click.

First, a primer.  Teasers are a type of parlay in which you pick multiple teams and all of those teams must win their individual bets for your bet to win.  With a teaser, you get extra points compared to the current betting line.  For example, the most common teaser is a 6-point teaser.  So instead of taking the Cowboys -7, you would get six points and Cowboys -1 would be your new bet.  You can combine as many teams as you want, and your payout increases with each additional team you add to your teaser.  Commonly, a 2-team 6-point teaser has a -110 payout, but each sportsbook has different prices that you should check out before placing your wager.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at how to analyze teasers within Bet Labs.  As I said before, it only takes one click.  Within any Bet Labs system, you can click on the record of the system and the teaser records will appear:

visiting-dogs-teasers

It’s important to know the break-even point for teasers.  You can’t expect to win 76% of your teasers by following this system.  In a 2-team teaser, each team wins 76% of the time.  The odds of two teams winning is .76 X .76 or .578.  That means a 76% teaser system is equivalent to a 57.8% system when betting against the spread.  The break-even point for 2-team teasers at -110 juice is 72.4%.

Here are the teaser breakdowns for the 2016 NFL season through Week 10:

Home teams: 69%
Away teams: 72%

Favorites: 67%
Underdogs: 75%

You may have noticed from the image above, that I combined visiting teams and underdogs to get to the 72-23 record this season for visiting underdogs.  The record is above the 72.4% break-even point.  We can investigate even further by looking at specific point spreads.  The first range I looked at was for visiting dogs of one point up to dogs of 3.5 points.  The reason I selected this range is to look at teams getting up to or over the key number of seven points.  Here are the results:

small-teasers

By increasing these small underdogs to at a touchdown underdog, teams would have won their teasers 80% of the time this season.  We can look at another range between 4 points and 7 points as well.  Now we are getting these teams up to at least a double-digit underdog, something that we know has been profitable from previous research.  Here are those results:

large-teasers

At this range of underdog we have an 88% win rate although the sample size decreases.  With the NFL betting market being very efficient, smart bettors can take advantage by utilizing teaser bets.  Although I would advise you to pay attention to key numbers when taking the extra points in a teaser bet.  If you are interested in doing your own teaser research, you can do so with a 6-day trial of our Bet Labs software.

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