Sports betting has become part of the mainstream media at this point. Point spreads and over/unders are routinely displayed on television and discussed on radio when discussing upcoming games. One bet type that doesn’t get as much attention is a teaser bet but it is becoming more and more popular. What many people may not know is that you can analyze teaser bets with the Bet Labs software with a simple click.
First, a primer. Teasers are a type of parlay in which you pick multiple teams and all of those teams must win their individual bets for your bet to win. With a teaser, you get extra points compared to the current betting line. For example, the most common teaser is a 6-point teaser. So instead of taking the Cowboys -7, you would get six points and Cowboys -1 would be your new bet. You can combine as many teams as you want, and your payout increases with each additional team you add to your teaser. Commonly, a 2-team 6-point teaser has a -110 payout, but each sportsbook has different prices that you should check out before placing your wager.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at how to analyze teasers within Bet Labs. As I said before, it only takes one click. Within any Bet Labs system, you can click on the record of the system and the teaser records will appear:
It’s important to know the break-even point for teasers. You can’t expect to win 76% of your teasers by following this system. In a 2-team teaser, each team wins 76% of the time. The odds of two teams winning is .76 X .76 or .578. That means a 76% teaser system is equivalent to a 57.8% system when betting against the spread. The break-even point for 2-team teasers at -110 juice is 72.4%.
Here are the teaser breakdowns for the 2016 NFL season through Week 10:
Home teams: 69%
Away teams: 72%
You may have noticed from the image above, that I combined visiting teams and underdogs to get to the 72-23 record this season for visiting underdogs. The record is above the 72.4% break-even point. We can investigate even further by looking at specific point spreads. The first range I looked at was for visiting dogs of one point up to dogs of 3.5 points. The reason I selected this range is to look at teams getting up to or over the key number of seven points. Here are the results:
By increasing these small underdogs to at a touchdown underdog, teams would have won their teasers 80% of the time this season. We can look at another range between 4 points and 7 points as well. Now we are getting these teams up to at least a double-digit underdog, something that we know has been profitable from previous research. Here are those results:
At this range of underdog we have an 88% win rate although the sample size decreases. With the NFL betting market being very efficient, smart bettors can take advantage by utilizing teaser bets. Although I would advise you to pay attention to key numbers when taking the extra points in a teaser bet. If you are interested in doing your own teaser research, you can do so with a 6-day trial of our Bet Labs software.