NFL Survivor Week 6 Analysis

palmer-injury

We survived with our pick of the Green Bay Packers over the New York Giants.  Unfortunately, almost everyone else did too as the popular picks of the Patriots (49%) and Steelers (13%) also came through in Week 5.  Those percentages come from ESPN’s Eliminator Challenge game and it’s likely that these two were the most popular plays in your pool last week as well.  The good news is that we have both of these teams left as options going forward.  For those that haven’t been keeping track, here are the teams that I’ve used in Survivor already:

Week 1: Chiefs
Week 2: Panthers
Week 3: Dolphins
Week 4: Texans
Week 5: Packers

So we still have a ton of good options for the rest of the season as we have managed to survive without using the likes of Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh, and Seattle.

Here’s a look at the survivor grid for the remainder of the season:

eliminator-week-6

There are seven teams with a 70% chance to win according to the simulation, although I’m eliminating the Packers since we just used them in Week 5.  In order of win percentage, here are the options I am considering.

Patriots (vs Bengals)
Bills (vs 49ers)
Cardinals (vs Jets)
Steelers (at Dolphins)
Titans (vs Browns)
Seahawks (vs Falcons)

While the Patriots are the most likely to win, with so many options on the board I’m going to save them for later once again.  I’m also saving the Steelers and Seahawks for similar reasons and think they will have much better spots later in the season.

According to ESPN, here are the current picks for Week 6 of our remaining three choices:

Bills 25%
Titans 12%
Cardinals 6%

So the easy choice is the Cardinals, right?  Well normally it would be but there is one problem: Carson Palmer.  He is currently questionable while dealing with a concussion.  Another issue is that the Cardinals play the Jets on Monday night.  And while he may be upgraded to probable, there is a scenario where we are locked into Arizona and Palmer gets scratched and now we are trying to survive with Drew Stanton under center. F*** that.

So we’re between Buffalo and Tennessee and I think the easy choice mathematically is Tennessee.  But once the human element gets involved, you realize you are betting on the Titans winning a game and it becomes infinitely more frightening.  But there is literally no other game this season where we would even consider them in Survivor again and it’s the semi-contrarian pick to avoid the Bills so we’ll make it official:

(Note: the original pick was the Tennessee Titans, but I changed my pick due to new information.  You can listen to the full commentary on our latest podcast.)

I think the ideal pick would be the Cardinals, but just too many questions surrounding the team right now.  The bad part is now I may actually have to watch some of this game on Sunday.

Here are my future picks that are very likely to change:

Week 7 Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8 Broncos (vs Chargers)
Week 9 Cowboys (at Browns)
Week 10 Ravens (vs Browns)
Week 11 Steelers (at Browns)
Week 12 Seahawks (at Buccaneers)
Week 13 Chargers (vs Buccaneers)
Week 14 Eagles (vs Redskins)
Week 15 Bills (vs Browns)
Week 16 Patriots (vs Jets)
Week 17 Vikings (vs Bears)

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