It’s Thanksgiving week, and no teams are on bye, so we have a full slate of games to choose from.  With so few weeks left, you are likely limited on your options so I’ll try to rank as many teams as possible.  It’s also important to plan ahead at this stage of the game.  Just because the Patriots are a good option, you may want to use them next week instead.  Here is the projected winning percentages for the rest of the season:


There are seven games that have over a 70% chance to win according to the simulation.  The betting market agrees with six of those games and has them as at least touchdown favorites.  The big disagreement is on the Eagles who are only 3.5 point favorites against the Packers on Monday.  The pick distribution is spread more evenly than usual but fading the Browns is once again the most popular choice according to ESPN’s Eliminator Challenge:

Giants  35%

Bills  11%

Saints  10%

Dolphins  10%

Cowboys  3%

Patriots  2%

Dallas and New England are both very good contrarian plays but once again, you may want to save them for later weeks.  At this point your strategy should largely depend on what teams you have left and start sketching out your 6-game plan for the rest of the season.  So while Dallas and New England are good options for this week, they are also good options for upcoming weeks as well.  For that reason, I would recommend Miami as the best option this week at home against San Francisco.  If you already used the Dolphins (perhaps against the Browns?), then I would rank the remaining teams like this:

  1. Dolphins
  2. Saints
  3. Bills
  4. Patriots
  5. Cowboys
  6. Giants

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