Congrats on those who were able to dodge the minefield in Week 6. The two biggest moneyline upsets of the season both came last week as the Falcons and Broncos both lost as double-digit favorites. This week there isn’t a touchdown favorite in the entire NFL which could be the recipe for a ton of small upsets. Which teams are the best options this week? Let’s take a look at the grid:
As I mentioned above, there isn’t a whole lot of options and I’ll actually discuss a few that aren’t highlighted above for Week 7. It’s also a good time to plan out your future plays with teams that you have left. Note that this is only a temporary plan and not set in stone. As we saw with the injury to Aaron Rodgers last week, any plans can change at any instance.
Let’s to through all the options for Week 7:
Steelers – Model 69.4% Pinnacle 68.5% Yahoo 3.5% Games Remaining: 4
Pittsburgh couldn’t have looked worse in Week 5, and they followed it up with an impressive road win in Arrowhead in Week 6. Welcome to the parity of the 2017 NFL season. The Steelers are the most likely team to get a win this week according to the model as they face division-rival Cincinnati at home.
Patriots – Model 67.7% Pinnacle 63.1% Yahoo 0.3% Games Remaining: 5
It’s a Superbowl rematch on Sunday Night Football but everybody is staying away from this one in survivor pools. The model likes New England’s chances more than the market currently does and they would make a great contrarian choice. The downside would be using your Patriots bullet now when there are better opportunities down the road.
Jaguars – Model 67.5% Pinnacle 60.8% Yahoo 1.2% Games Remaining: 2
In this case, the model is much higher on the Jags than the current betting market. Our latest power ratings had Jacksonville as the 13th best team in the league going forward. I usually try to avoid road games, but in a week when there aren’t a lot of options, you have to consider Jacksonville against a terrible Colts team.
Eagles – Model 64.2% Pinnacle 66.9% Yahoo 1.2% Games Remaining: 3
The Eagles fall just below the 65% threshold to be highlighted above but still deserve some consideration. The market likes Philly a little more than the model but a tough Monday night divisional matchup against the Redskins isn’t the best spot to utilize the Eagles in my opinion.
Cowboys – Model 63.6% Pinnacle 69.7% Yahoo 33.5% Games Remaining: 1
A big disagreement on this game. The market has the Cowboys as the most likely team to get a win based on current moneylines. The model is slightly more skeptical. The fact that Dallas is also is one of the two most popular picks this weekend is a good reason to avoid them this week.
Titans – Model 63.4% Pinnacle 68.0% Yahoo 35.2% Games Remaining: 0
The most popular pick in survivor pools is whatever team is playing the Browns. I can see the logic as Cleveland is clearly the worst team in the league and really hasn’t really burned anyone in two years. I’m hoping this is the week that they do. Am I betting on a Browns upset, not just yet, but with everyone continuing to fade the Browns, I think avoiding Tennessee it the play this week.
Vikings – Model 63.2% Pinnacle 68.5% Yahoo 5.0% Games Remaining: 2
Minnesota is now the frontrunner in the NFC North but the model isn’t big on them in this spot against the Ravens.
Seahawks – Model 56.0% Pinnacle 68.1% Yahoo 2.0% Games Remaining: 6
I did want to mention Seattle as they are one of the biggest point spreads on the board this week. The model just completely disagrees with this line (the same way it did last week in the Giants-Broncos game). I think there is still some overreaction going on with the wide receiver injuries to the G-Men and can’t recommend Seattle even though they are coming off of a bye.
The Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve already used a few of the options, so the Jaguars are my best remaining option. Since I know you may have used different teams, I would rank them in this order:
I also think if you are still alive and have multiple entries remaining, that this is a good week to diversify as the expected number of upsets is rather large. If you want to discuss this week’s pick, hit us up on twitter @Bet_Labs.
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