Congrats on making it to Week 5 of your Survivor Pool. Last week I took the Packers in the Thursday game so I didn’t have to sweat some of the close games on Sunday. Nearly a quarter of entries lost last week at Yahoo when the Falcons, Patriots, and Cowboys all lost as home favorites.
As a recap, I have used the Bills, Ravens, Patriots, and Packers. I’ll continue to analyze all viable options going forward but will not have these as options when I make my official pick.
This week, it’s slim pickings for everyone that’s survived. Let’s take a look at this week’s grid.
As always, I’ve highlighted all games with >65% chance to win in green. This week there are only two teams that fit and the big decision is which Pennsylvania team is the better choice. First, let’s take a look at the stats for each team.
Steelers – Model 75.5% Pinnacle 77.7% Yahoo 34.9% Games Remaining: 4
Eagles – Model 66.3% Pinnacle 70.9% Yahoo 28.9% Games Remaining: 2
Normally, I hate taking the most popular pick in a given week. This isn’t just to be contrarian for the sake of doing so. The way to win your pool is for you to win while everyone else loses. For that to happen, you can’t be on the same pick as everyone else. That being said, I just don’t think there’s any other option this week.
The Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh was the most popular pick in Week 1 which means many people who are still alive won’t have this option. If that applies to you then I think you have to go Eagles but I don’t feel good about it. Some contrarian options could include the Giants, Vikings, and the Seahawks who should be favored according to the model.
Good luck on your pick this week. If you would like to start building your own betting systems using our historical data, try out our new Starter membership and start creating today.