Hopefully you made it through Week 3 which saw roughly 40% of survivor pool entries taken out.  Road favorites like the Dolphins, Steelers, and Broncos were the main culprits and you may have noticed I tend to lean towards home teams in my picks.  Of course, later in the season we may not always have that option.

There is one change in the analysis this week.  I have decided to only focus on the percentages at Yahoo and no longer consider them at ESPN.  The reason is because you can pick the whole season in advance at ESPN and there are a lot of picks from people who aren’t actually logging in and making picks.  Yahoo only allows you to pick one week at a time and I think gives a better representation of what people will be picking in your pool.

I’ll also add the number of projected games a team has left that could be possible plays (games highlighted in green).  This gives a quick view of how much you would want to save a team for a later week.

For those that haven’t been following, I have already selected the Bills, Ravens, and Patriots.  I will not have these as options for my pick but will still analyze the value of these picks in case you have different options available to you.

Enough talk, let’s take a look at this week’s games:

There are seven games this week featuring a team having at least a 65% chance to win.  We’ll go through them in order of highest win percentage to lowest.

Packers –  Model 79.9%  Pinnacle 75.3%  Yahoo 11.8%  Games Remaining: 6

Green Bay is the most likely team to get a win according to the model.  Although Bears-Packers is a rivalry game, Thursday Night Football gives an added home field advantage to the Packers in this situation.  With less than 12% of picks taking Green Bay, they make a good contrarian pick although having six projected options in the future does make you wonder if you should save the cheeseheads for later down the road.

Seahawks –  Model 78.0%  Pinnacle 87.9%  Yahoo 43.9%  Games Remaining: 6

Here is the consensus pick for Week 4.  Just like in Weeks 2 and 3, my model is higher on the Colts than the betting market.  Seattle has the highest spread this week which is why it’s not a surprise to see the pick percentage so high but that’s a really good reason NOT to take the Seahawks this week.

Patriots –  Model 73.5%  Pinnacle 79.0%  Yahoo 5.2%  Games Remaining: 8

I decided to use New England in Week 3 so they won’t be an option for me.  They are a good contrarian pick this week with only 5% taking them at home but there are also tons of opportunities to use the Pats in future weeks.  I think with so many options this week, saving New England makes sense if you still have them as an option.

Cowboys –  Model 73.2%  Pinnacle 71.1%  Yahoo 3.7%  Games Remaining: 2

This is kind of a sneaky pick this week.  Everyone seems to be buying into the Rams this year and currently 74% of spread bets are taking the Rams +6 against the Cowboys.  A long week for Los Angeles combined with a short week for Dallas does make it slightly scary to take the Cowboys at home but they would be a low-owned pick with not much future value that you would have to sacrifice.

Falcons –  Model 71.2%  Pinnacle 77.3%  Yahoo 14.4%  Games Remaining: 5

I don’t know if the model is down on the Falcons or high on the Bills.  Probably a combination of the two.  Considering there are four games with higher percentages, this is the second most popular pick, and Atlanta has plenty of opportunities later in the season, I just don’t see them as a good option this week.

Cardinals –  Model 70.4%  Pinnacle 73.2%  Yahoo 6.1%  Games Remaining: 0

This game is really intriguing. There is around a 30% chance you lose this game but this is the only team this week that has no projected future value.  There isn’t a better game on the schedule for Arizona than getting San Francisco at home.  But there are also many other options with higher chances of moving on to Week 5.

Chiefs –  Model 69.6%  Pinnacle 71.2%  Yahoo 2.3%  Games Remaining: 4

The Chiefs have looked as good as any team in the league but this isn’t the game to use them.  Looking at the schedule above, Kansas City will be a good team to have available as most of their easier games come towards the end of the season.

The Pick – Green Bay Packers

This is the most likely team to win according to the model and not the most popular pick.  Many people decided to use the Packers last week against Cincinnati and can’t use them this week.  If you did already use Green Bay, I think New England is also a good pick this week.  I would try to avoid taking Seattle but would understand if you don’t have the Packers or Patriots available.  I was really tempted to use Arizona and save all of the other teams for future weeks, but just couldn’t justify the risk.  A reminder that the Packers are playing on Thursday night, so get your pick in early or you will miss out.

Good luck in your survivor pools this week.  If you would like to start building your own betting systems using our historical database, check out our new Starter membership.  Use promo code SURVIVOR to get $20 off your first month.