NFL Survivor Analysis – Week 5


Another week in the NFL, another week where we have survived.  There wasn’t a lot of entries that fell this week as the two most popular picks (Dolphins and Redskins) both came out on top.  The Cardinals did cost some people as they were upset at home by the 3-1 Los Angeles Rams.  On ESPN’s Eliminator Challenge, 12% of entries took the Cardinals this week and another 12% took the Cardinals last week when they lost to Buffalo.

This week, there are a lot of solid options.  If you are new to this blog or just as a reminder, below are the teams that I have already used and therefore won’t be an option for me going forward.  I’ll still include them in the grid in case you have them as options.

Week 1: Chiefs
Week 2: Panthers
Week 3: Dolphins
Week 4: Texans

And now on to this week’s grid:


A lot of options this week!  There are six teams that have a 70% chance or higher of winning this week (seven if you have Carolina as an option).  With so many choices the key to this week is to look ahead to see what options you want to save for later.

Patriots  82.1%

Guess who’s back, back again.  Brady’s back, tell a friend.  The market currently has the Pats as 10-point road favorites and they figure to be the most likely pick in Week 5.  While I’m not worried about New England losing this week, I do think I’ll save them for a later date when there aren’t as many viable options.  Potential matchups include the Rams in Week 13 and the Jets in Week 16.

Steelers  80.2%

After a beating by the Eagles, people wondered if the Steelers were overrated.  After demolishing the Chiefs, people wondered if the Steelers were the best team in the league.  Neither really matters to us as survivor players as we’re only worried about what happens next.  The Steelers are a fine choice this week but they fall into the same boat as New England in that I would rather wait until later.  Potential matchups include both games against the Browns in Weeks 11 and 17.

Vikings  75.9%

3rd team, same story.  I’m going to save the Vikings for later.  Right now, I have them penciled in for Week 8 at Chicago as that looks like a tough week for survivor pools as it stands right now.

Broncos  72.4%

4th team, same story.  So many freaking options for the Broncos as they look like the best defense in the league once again.  Right now, I’d have them in Week 14 at Tennessee but as I said, they could be a choice nearly every week.

Colts  71.6%

The model still bakes in some preseason expectations which is why it still thinks the Colts are somewhat respectable.  I don’t have the same faith and am staying away from Indy this week and probably in future weeks until I see something worth buying into.

That leaves us with our pick for Week 5:

Pick: Green Bay Packers (vs Giants)

Green Bay is coming off a bye going against a Giants team that is coming off a short week.  The Packers only have one other good option and that is Week 7 against the Bears on Thursday Night Football.  The issue with that is there is already a better pick for that week as the Bengals take on the Browns and many players won’t have that option as they used the Bengals this past week.  So we’ll go ahead and use our Packers bullet in Week 5 and hope to see Odell Beckham throwing another temper tantrum after the game.

Projected future picks (subject to change of course)

Week 6: Cardinals (vs Jets)
Week 7: Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8: Vikings (at Bears)
Week 9: Cowboys (at Browns)
Week 10: Ravens (vs Browns)
Week 11: Colts (vs Titans)
Week 12: Seahawks (at Buccaneers)
Week 13: Chargers (vs Buccaneers)
Week 14: Broncos (at Titans)
Week 15: Bills (vs Browns)
Week 16: Patriots (vs Jets)
Week 17: Steelers (vs Browns)

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