NFL Survivor Analysis – Week 4

shady-mccoy

Last week was pretty crazy, as I highlighted the Dolphins to win at home against the Browns.  Here is what I wrote about that pick last week:

I’m admittedly a little gunshy about this pick.  We don’t know if Cody Kessler is closer to Carson Wentz or Johnny Manziel.  But either way, we are fading a bad team on the road starting their third-string rookie in his first career game.

As you can see, I had a good reason to be gunshy.  The Dolphins needed overtime and three missed field goals from the Browns in order to win the game.  I think the argument for taking Miami last week is an interesting one and I broke down that decision yesterday.  But the fact of the matter is that we did survive and we are on to Week 4.  Let’s take a look at this week’s grid.

survivor-grid-4

There are currently five teams with a 70% per the simulation.  The Patriots win percentage is based on Jimmy G starting and being 100% healthy.  We have no idea if either one of those things are true.  Plus the Patriots are currently the best team in the league and I want to have them as options later in the season when Tom Brady is back.

So that leaves us with four options: Cardinals, Redskins, Vikings, and Texans.  Here are the current lines at Pinnacle for each team.

Cardinals -8
Redskins -7.5
Vikings -4
Texans -6.5

The Vikings have a tough matchup against the Giants on Monday night and they look like they will be a prime choice in Week 8 when there aren’t a lot of options.  That leaves us with three options.  According to ESPN’s Eliminator challenge, here are the current pick percentages for each team.

Redskins – 24%
Cardinals – 14%
Texans – 7%

Other popular picks that I’m not considering are the Bengals (18%) and the Broncos (8%).  Last week we took the Dolphins despite knowing that they were going to be the most popular pick.  The thought process was to not have to use the Packers so that we could use them later in the season.  This week, we have a couple of other options so that we don’t have to take the chalk pick in Washington.  Since we have other options to use Arizona later, we’ll save them and take Houston at home this week against their division rival.

Week 4 Pick: Houston Texans

UPDATE: Since this was published, J.J. Watt has been placed on IR which means he obviously won’t be available for this game.  The line has since moved and is currently Texans -4.5.  I’m not wavering on my pick.  I’m sticking with Houston.  I’m not sure any defender should be worth 2 points to the spread, even one as good as Watt.

Previous Picks

Week 1 – Chiefs (W)
Week 2 – Panthers (W)
Week 3 – Dolphins (W)

Projected Upcoming Picks

Week 5 – Colts (vs Bears)
Week 6 – Cardinals (vs Jets)
Week 7 – Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8 – Vikings (at Bears)
Week 9 – Chargers (vs Titans)
Week 10 – Ravens (vs Browns)
Week 11 – Giants (vs Bears)
Week 12 – Cowboys (vs Redskins)
Week 13 – Patriots (vs Rams)

 

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