NFL Survivor Analysis – Week 2

alex-smith-survivor

Week 1 is in the books.  We still have 16 weeks to go.  The main goal of this article is to help you win your NFL Survivor pool.  Before we take a look at where we are going, let’s first take a look at where we have been.

Week 1 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

“You are what your record says you are.” That line from the great Bill Parcells is never more true than in a survivor pool.  Everyone is either 1-0 and alive, or is 0-1 and eliminated.  In this case, we were the beneficiaries of a massive comeback by the Chiefs over the Chargers in the second half.  It was capped off by an overtime rushing touchdown by quarterback Alex Smith.

Were we lucky? Yeah, probably.  Does it matter? No, we are 1-0.

Upcoming Games

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The grid above is what guides the decisions for this and future weeks.  The best matchups are highlighted in green.  As much as I would like to say this week’s pick was made after a complicated process, it’s not.

Week 2 Pick: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are huge favorites according to the simulation, and the betting market currently agrees and has instilled them as 13.5-point favorites.  Not only are the Panthers the most likely to win this week, this is the most likely win for Carolina all season.  While this will likely be the chalk pick in Week 2, sometimes it’s best not to overthink it.

Upcoming Picks

These are of course subject to change, but it’s best to always have a plan going forward.

Week 3: Packers (vs Lions)
Week 4: Redskins (vs Browns)
Week 5: Patriots (at Browns)
Week 6: Seahawks (vs Falcons)
Week 7: Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8: Broncos (vs Chargers)
Week 9: Cowboys (at Browns)
Week 10: Cardinals (vs 49ers)
Week 11: Colts (vs Titans)

 

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