Because of the lack of huge upsets combined with the fact that the Browns have been a successful fade every week, an abnormal amount of people are still alive in the Survivor Pools. For most of you, there are only 2 weeks left, however some of you have claimed that your pool extends into the playoffs. We’ll have more analysis for that situation a little later. Here is the slimmed down grid for the remaining 2 weeks of the season.
The obvious play is the Patriots if you still have them but it’s unlikely that you do. And if your pool u might want to save them anyway. If you don’t extend into the playoffs and you have the Patriots left, you absolutely should take them this week.
The obvious and popular pick this week is San Diego. At ESPN, 46% of survivor entries are fading the Browns this week. The simulation has the Chargers 80.9% to win and the current betting line has them as 5.5-point favorites on the road this week. I get why you would think they are a safe pick, but the most likely way to win your survivor pool is by not taking the Chargers and them losing to the Browns. I understand how ridiculous that sounds, but it’s what you have to root for.
Other teams besides the Patriots that are good plays include the Cowboys (-7) and Seahawks (-7.5) although it’s likely you have used them as well. The simulation also likes the Titans (-4.5) and Bills (-3.5) as good options to win but the current betting market is not as high on them as the simulation.
The Packers (-7) are another interesting pick. With their up-and-down season, it’s possible you still have them as an option and with the betting market instilling them as touchdown favorites, it’s another reasonable option. The simulation isn’t as high on Green Bay but admittedly, the simulation has been high on Minnesota to its own detriment most of the season.
If your pool is continuing on into the playoffs, then you need to have an available option for Wildcard Weekend. The most likely teams to play that weekend are: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, NY Giants, and Detroit. Tennessee or Houston is likely to have a home game that weekend but not sure how much you would trust either team against a 5-seed Chiefs or Raiders team.
It’s hard to say with any certainty what you should do without knowing exactly what teams you have left. If you would like to work through your options, feel free to tweet us at @Bet_Labs. Best of luck in Week 16.