NFL Survivor Analysis – Week 10

steve-smith

We are on to Week 10 of the NFL season.  If you have made it this far, congratulations.  Each week I try to breakdown which games are the best options to stay alive in your pool.  Here is the breakdown for Week 10 and the rest of the season:

week-10-survivor

This week really boils down to three options: Arizona, Baltimore, and New England.  The simulation gives the Cardinals the best chance to win this week and the betting market currently agrees:

Arizona -13.5
Baltimore -10.5
New England -7.5

The other factor that is important to consider is what other players are picking.  Ideally, each week you are not on the most popular choice so that if that team goes down, you gain ground on a large portion of your opponents.  Here are the current pick percentages from ESPN’s Eliminator challenge:

Baltimore 41%
Arizona 19%
New England 1%

As I stated last week, whatever team is playing the Browns is very likely to be the most popular choice each week.  I realize that the Ravens have almost zero future value in your pool so it could be tempting to go with Baltimore this week but I prefer to go a little more contrarian.  My picks in order this week would be:

Arizona
New England
Baltimore

If for some odd reason, you have already used those three teams and you need a team off the board then I would suggest San Diego at home against the Dolphins.  Best of luck this week and hope to see you still alive in Week 11.

While we like to help you when your Survivor Pool, our main focus is single game betting.  The Bet Labs software allows users to instantly analyze over ten years of betting statistics and data using a very simple interface.  We offer a 6-day trial if you want to try it.

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