The NFL Playoffs are upon us. After 17 weeks there are 12 teams vying for the title. Which squads offers value to win the Super Bowl?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016-17 NFL Playoffs. For example, the Falcons are +875 to win it all. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Atlanta they would need to take the Super Bowl 10.3% (which is 100/(875+100)) of the time. We project the Falcons to win the title 13.1% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at +875 odds.
New England Patriots
Current odds: +185, Implied Probability: 35.1%
Patriots win the Super Bowl 39.1% of the time
There is a lot to like about the Pats. New England has home field advantage (advanced to the Super Bowl three of four times they were the No. 1 seed), an easy path to the championship game and is well balance. Bill Belichick’s team is the only one in the playoff that ranks in the top ten in both total offense (1st in offensive DVOA) and defense (11th in defensive DVOA).
Current odds: +425, Implied Probability: 19.0%
Cowboys win the Super Bowl 25.6% of the time
The Cowboys offense is humming with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way in the backfield behind the best offensive line in the league. Dallas leads the NFL in time of possession, which helps a defense that has allowed the fifth fewest points (19.1 points). The cherry on top, the Cowboys won’t have to leave the state of Texas to win the title.
2016-17 NFL Playoffs
Postseason action begins Saturday
Current odds: +10500, Implied Probability: 1.0%
Raiders win the Super Bowl 1.5% of the time
First, let me say that our model isn’t messed up. We aren’t the only ones giving Oakland a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than Vegas. The loss of Derek Carr is devastating but at +10500 there is value if you want to take a longshot. The Raiders have a favorable matchup against a bad Texans team; if they can advance past the Wild Card round anything could happen.
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