There are just four weeks left in the season and only one playoff spot has been claimed. More than half the league remains in contention for the postseason. Which teams are contenders or pretenders? We simulated the remainder of the 2016 season 10,000 times to find out.

Super Bowl Champions

For the first time all season, the Cowboys are the most like Super Bowl champion. Dallas’ odds haven’t improved, in fact they are down slightly from last week (29.8% to 29.2%) but the injury to Rob Gronkowski has knocked New England out of the top spot. The Patriots title chance has decreased from 30.3% to 21.7%.


Most Likely Playoff Teams

There are still 20 teams with a 10% or greater chance of making the playoffs. However, the most likely postseason participants have remained relatively unchanged with the exception of Houston. The Texans are on a three game losing streak and now Indy is the most likely squad to win the AFC South. The AFC West and NFC East are projected to each send three teams to the playoffs.


Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes

The loss of Gronk hasn’t impacted the Patriots chance of getting a first round bye (Week 13: 97.4%, Week 14: 98.2%), however the team is less likely to get home field advantage (Week 13: 75.5%, Week 14: 63.6%). The Raiders now have nearly a 1-in-4 chance of playing on its postseason games at home.


Dallas can lock up a first round bye with a win this week and a Lions loss/tie or Seahawks loss


The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (13.8%).

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Cardinals (4.5%).

Will the Browns go 0-16? 42.1% chance Cleveland goes winless

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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffs%Super Bowl %Home Field1st Round Bye
Dallas Cowboys10029.285.198.9
New England Patriots99.821.763.698.2
Seattle Seahawks99.918.914.797.4
Oakland Raiders98.56.723.855.9
Kansas City Chiefs92.95.611.438.6
Pittsburgh Steelers63.93.301.7
Denver Broncos703.21.24.1
Atlanta Falcons87.42.900.8
Baltimore Ravens44.12.50.11
Detroit Lions90.
New York Giants66.
Washington Redskins73.20.700
Indianapolis Colts45.60.600
Minnesota Vikings29.10.600
Tennessee Titans28.50.600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers33.70.300.2
Buffalo Bills150.300.1
Miami Dolphins13.80.100.3
Green Bay Packers10.80.100
Arizona Cardinals4.50.100
Houston Texans27.4000
New Orleans Saints2.5000
Philadelphia Eagles1.3000
Cincinnati Bengals0.5000
San Diego Chargers0.4000
Carolina Panthers0000
Chicago Bears0000
Cleveland Browns0000
Jacksonville Jaguars0000
Los Angeles Rams0000
New York Jets0000
San Francisco 49ers0000