There are just four weeks left in the season and only one playoff spot has been claimed. More than half the league remains in contention for the postseason. Which teams are contenders or pretenders? We simulated the remainder of the 2016 season 10,000 times to find out.
Super Bowl Champions
For the first time all season, the Cowboys are the most like Super Bowl champion. Dallas’ odds haven’t improved, in fact they are down slightly from last week (29.8% to 29.2%) but the injury to Rob Gronkowski has knocked New England out of the top spot. The Patriots title chance has decreased from 30.3% to 21.7%.
Most Likely Playoff Teams
There are still 20 teams with a 10% or greater chance of making the playoffs. However, the most likely postseason participants have remained relatively unchanged with the exception of Houston. The Texans are on a three game losing streak and now Indy is the most likely squad to win the AFC South. The AFC West and NFC East are projected to each send three teams to the playoffs.
Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes
The loss of Gronk hasn’t impacted the Patriots chance of getting a first round bye (Week 13: 97.4%, Week 14: 98.2%), however the team is less likely to get home field advantage (Week 13: 75.5%, Week 14: 63.6%). The Raiders now have nearly a 1-in-4 chance of playing on its postseason games at home.
Dallas can lock up a first round bye with a win this week and a Lions loss/tie or Seahawks loss
The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (13.8%).
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Cardinals (4.5%).
Will the Browns go 0-16? 42.1% chance Cleveland goes winless
Want to build your own data-driven betting systems?
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Playoffs%||Super Bowl %||Home Field||1st Round Bye|
|New England Patriots||99.8||21.7||63.6||98.2|
|Kansas City Chiefs||92.9||5.6||11.4||38.6|
|New York Giants||66.8||0.7||0.1||0.4|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||33.7||0.3||0||0.2|
|Green Bay Packers||10.8||0.1||0||0|
|New Orleans Saints||2.5||0||0||0|
|San Diego Chargers||0.4||0||0||0|
|Los Angeles Rams||0||0||0||0|
|New York Jets||0||0||0||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0||0|