NFL Simulation 11.30.16

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With Turkey Day in the rearview mirror, the regular season finish line is now in sight. As teams make their playoff push here is how the league stands heading into week 13 based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season.

Super Bowl Champions

New England and Dallas are still one-two as the Pats and Cowboys combine to win +60% of all the Super Bowls. The Seahawks’ championship odds dropped from 13.1% to 10.3% following a surprising loss to Tampa Bay but Seattle is still a threat to Dallas despite the poor performance last week. The biggest winner from Week 12 is Oakland. The Raiders have won five in a row and the team’s Super Bowl odds increased by 63.6% to 5.4%.

TeamSuper Bowl Probability (%)
New England Patriots30.3
Dallas Cowboys29.8
Seattle Seahawks10.3
Oakland Raiders5.4
Kansas City Chiefs5.4

Most Likely Playoff Teams

The AFC West and NFC East are still poised to send three teams each to the playoffs. If the postseason started today there would be five new participants compared to last season. If Houston coughs up the lead in the AFC South and Denver falters down the stretch, more than half the playoff field would turnover.

TeamAFC Playoff Chance (%)TeamNFC Playoff Chance (%)
New England Patriots99.6Dallas Cowboys100.0
Oakland Raiders91.8Seattle Seahawks99.9
Pittsburgh Steelers71.8Atlanta Falcons92.0
Houston Texans49.0Detroit Lions69.1
Kansas City Chiefs82.1Washington Redskins79.3
Denver Broncos51.6New York Giants76.0

Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes

The Pats are the most likely team to get a first round bye but Dallas is more likely to earn home field advantage. Seattle’s loss to the Bucs gave the Cowboys some breathing room. The Raiders, assured a winning record for the first time since 2002, have a 53.7% chance to get a first round bye and a 15.8% chance to catch New England for home field advantage.

TeamHome Field (%)Bye (%)
Dallas Cowboys81.695.0
New England Patriots75.597.4
Seattle Seahawks15.986.6
Oakland Raiders15.853.7
Kansas City Chiefs6.736.4
Denver Broncos1.46.3

The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Buccaneers (9.3%).

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Colts (21.0%).


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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffs%Conf. Champ. %Super Bowl %
New England Patriots99.652.630.3
Dallas Cowboys10052.129.8
Seattle Seahawks99.92310.3
Oakland Raiders91.813.25.4
Kansas City Chiefs82.112.55.4
Atlanta Falcons929.74.2
Pittsburgh Steelers71.87.93.6
Denver Broncos51.65.42.5
New York Giants763.71.5
Minnesota Vikings47.73.41.3
Washington Redskins79.33.31.2
Detroit Lions69.13.31.2
Buffalo Bills35.12.51
Baltimore Ravens30.81.90.8
Tennessee Titans31.41.50.4
Miami Dolphins30.31.30.4
New Orleans Saints80.50.2
Philadelphia Eagles7.20.50.2
Houston Texans490.70.1
Indianapolis Colts210.40.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers9.30.20.1
Green Bay Packers9.20.30.1
San Diego Chargers4.80.20.1
Arizona Cardinals20.10
Cincinnati Bengals0.700
Carolina Panthers0.500
Los Angeles Rams000
Chicago Bears000
Cleveland Browns000
Jacksonville Jaguars000
New York Jets000
San Francisco 49ers000

 

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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