With Turkey Day in the rearview mirror, the regular season finish line is now in sight. As teams make their playoff push here is how the league stands heading into week 13 based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season.
Super Bowl Champions
New England and Dallas are still one-two as the Pats and Cowboys combine to win +60% of all the Super Bowls. The Seahawks’ championship odds dropped from 13.1% to 10.3% following a surprising loss to Tampa Bay but Seattle is still a threat to Dallas despite the poor performance last week. The biggest winner from Week 12 is Oakland. The Raiders have won five in a row and the team’s Super Bowl odds increased by 63.6% to 5.4%.
|Team||Super Bowl Probability (%)|
|New England Patriots||30.3|
|Kansas City Chiefs||5.4|
Most Likely Playoff Teams
The AFC West and NFC East are still poised to send three teams each to the playoffs. If the postseason started today there would be five new participants compared to last season. If Houston coughs up the lead in the AFC South and Denver falters down the stretch, more than half the playoff field would turnover.
|Team||AFC Playoff Chance (%)||Team||NFC Playoff Chance (%)|
|New England Patriots||99.6||Dallas Cowboys||100.0|
|Oakland Raiders||91.8||Seattle Seahawks||99.9|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||71.8||Atlanta Falcons||92.0|
|Houston Texans||49.0||Detroit Lions||69.1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||82.1||Washington Redskins||79.3|
|Denver Broncos||51.6||New York Giants||76.0|
Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes
The Pats are the most likely team to get a first round bye but Dallas is more likely to earn home field advantage. Seattle’s loss to the Bucs gave the Cowboys some breathing room. The Raiders, assured a winning record for the first time since 2002, have a 53.7% chance to get a first round bye and a 15.8% chance to catch New England for home field advantage.
|Team||Home Field (%)||Bye (%)|
|New England Patriots||75.5||97.4|
|Kansas City Chiefs||6.7||36.4|
The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Buccaneers (9.3%).
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Colts (21.0%).
Want to build your own data-driven betting systems?
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Playoffs%||Conf. Champ. %||Super Bowl %|
|New England Patriots||99.6||52.6||30.3|
|Kansas City Chiefs||82.1||12.5||5.4|
|New York Giants||76||3.7||1.5|
|New Orleans Saints||8||0.5||0.2|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||9.3||0.2||0.1|
|Green Bay Packers||9.2||0.3||0.1|
|San Diego Chargers||4.8||0.2||0.1|
|Los Angeles Rams||0||0||0|
|New York Jets||0||0||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0|