NFL Simulation 11.23.16

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It is almost Thanksgiving, which means you will likely overload on turkey and pumpkin pie. So you don’t feel stuffed, here is everything you need to know in bite-size nuggets about the NFL heading into Week 12 based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season.

Super Bowl Champions

The top five teams are exactly the same from last week. The Patriots, Cowboys and Seahawks win 70.7% of all the simulated Super Bowls.

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Most Likely Playoff Teams

The AFC West and NFC East are projected to send three teams each to the postseason. Houston is the least likely playoff team as a slight favorite to win the AFC South.

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Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes

The Pats are the most likely team to get a first round bye and enjoy home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seattle is more likely to get a first round bye than Dallas because the Cowboys play in the competitive NFC East. However, the ‘Boys are still more likely to secure home field advantage in the NFC.

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The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (24.6%).

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Titans (20.0%).

Will Cleveland go winless? 36.5% chance the Browns go 0-16, up from 24.3% last week.


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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffs%Conf. Champ. %Super Bowl %
New England Patriots99.552.130.1
Dallas Cowboys99.747.627.4
Seattle Seahawks99.928.313.1
Kansas City Chiefs68.414.16
Denver Broncos77.412.85.7
Oakland Raiders86.38.73.3
Minnesota Vikings73.75.32.2
Atlanta Falcons85.15.72.2
Philadelphia Eagles284.32
Pittsburgh Steelers64.23.31.5
Baltimore Ravens32.631.1
Washington Redskins802.40.9
Arizona Cardinals920.9
Buffalo Bills341.80.8
New York Giants59.21.80.7
Detroit Lions43.41.90.7
Tennessee Titans201.40.5
Houston Texans541.30.3
Miami Dolphins24.60.60.2
New Orleans Saints7.30.40.2
Indianapolis Colts30.60.60.1
San Diego Chargers3.20.10.1
Green Bay Packers2.80.30.1
Cincinnati Bengals5.20.40.1
Carolina Panthers3.90.10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers800
Los Angeles Rams0.100
Cleveland Browns000
New York Jets000
San Francisco 49ers000
Chicago Bears000
Jacksonville Jaguars000

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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