It is almost Thanksgiving, which means you will likely overload on turkey and pumpkin pie. So you don’t feel stuffed, here is everything you need to know in bite-size nuggets about the NFL heading into Week 12 based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season.
Super Bowl Champions
The top five teams are exactly the same from last week. The Patriots, Cowboys and Seahawks win 70.7% of all the simulated Super Bowls.
Most Likely Playoff Teams
The AFC West and NFC East are projected to send three teams each to the postseason. Houston is the least likely playoff team as a slight favorite to win the AFC South.
Home Field Advantage and 1st Round Byes
The Pats are the most likely team to get a first round bye and enjoy home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seattle is more likely to get a first round bye than Dallas because the Cowboys play in the competitive NFC East. However, the ‘Boys are still more likely to secure home field advantage in the NFC.
The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (24.6%).
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Titans (20.0%).
Will Cleveland go winless? 36.5% chance the Browns go 0-16, up from 24.3% last week.
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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
| Team | Playoffs% | Conf. Champ. % | Super Bowl % |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 99.5 | 52.1 | 30.1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 99.7 | 47.6 | 27.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 99.9 | 28.3 | 13.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 68.4 | 14.1 | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | 77.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 |
| Oakland Raiders | 86.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 73.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 85.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 64.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 32.6 | 3 | 1.1 |
| Washington Redskins | 80 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Buffalo Bills | 34 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| New York Giants | 59.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Detroit Lions | 43.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 20 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Houston Texans | 54 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 24.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 30.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 0 | 0 |
