NFL Simulation 11.16.16

NFL Simulation 11.16.16

The NFL got its groove back in Week 10. From dramatic finishes (Denver’s blocked extra point) to instant classics (Steelers vs. Cowboys), we finally got the football we deserved. After an entertaining week, what does the playoff picture look like? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.

The sky is falling! Calm down, Chicken Little. New England lost a game, it was bound to happen. The Patriots are still the most likely champions winning the Super Bowl 30.9% of the time. Though their title chances are down from last week (35.2%) and the gap has narrowed between them and the Cowboys.

The ‘Boys are for real. Dallas answered any lingering questions naysayers had with an impressive win over Pittsburgh. The Cowboys have won eight straight and have the best record in football. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have positioned the team as the most likely to capture the NFC title and the second most likely Super Bowl champions (26.2%).

Baltimore, Dallas’ opponent in Week 11, has won two games in a row and finds itself on top of the AFC North. The Ravens enjoyed the biggest increase in playoff probability (23.7%) after Week 10. After a win over the Browns and losses by both the Steelers and Bengals, Joe Flacco and crew are the most likely to win the division (49.3%).

No time to R-E-L-A-X. The biggest loser this week is the Packers. Green Bay has lost three straight and is below .500. Fortunately for the Cheeseheads, the NFC North is wide open but the team’s playoff odds have dwindled. The Pack has just an 11.7% chance of reaching the postseason.

How often do 3 teams from the same division make the playoffs? Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and four divisions, three teams from the same division have made the playoffs six times. This year, it could happen again. If the playoffs started today, the NFC East and AFC West would both send three teams to the postseason. Here is the probability of each division sending three teams to the playoffs.

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The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Redskins and Giants. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Raiders and Broncos.

The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (15.0%).

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Steelers (43.9%).


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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffs%Conf. Champ. %Super Bowl %
New England Patriots99.252.830.9
Dallas Cowboys99.44626.2
Seattle Seahawks98.622.810.5
Kansas City Chiefs88.314.56.7
Denver Broncos79.111.55.4
Minnesota Vikings62.28.43.7
Oakland Raiders80.59.13.6
Atlanta Falcons83.68.13.1
Philadelphia Eagles48.342.1
Arizona Cardinals26.53.71.7
Pittsburgh Steelers43.93.91.3
Buffalo Bills24.11.70.7
Baltimore Ravens49.31.90.6
Washington Redskins56.81.60.5
New York Giants51.61.40.5
Green Bay Packers11.71.30.4
Detroit Lions39.21.40.4
Indianapolis Colts18.11.20.3
Houston Texans59.71.40.3
Tennessee Titans29.90.70.3
New Orleans Saints14.70.90.3
San Diego Chargers3.20.60.2
Carolina Panthers3.10.40.2
Cincinnati Bengals9.60.40.1
Miami Dolphins150.30.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3.400
Jacksonville Jaguars0.100
Los Angeles Rams100
Chicago Bears0.100
New York Jets000
Cleveland Browns000
San Francisco 49ers000

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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