Every team in the NFL has played at least eight games and we have already seen 133 of 256 regular-season games. That is more than half the season and yet the playoff picture is still clouded. Whose in, whose out? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.
At 39, Tom Brady is playing his best football. The future Hall of Famer has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception in four games this season. New England was doing well without their starting quarterback but has only gotten better since his return. The Patriots and Bill Belichick are heavy favorites to win another Super Bowl (35.2%), only one other team has better than a 10% chance to win it all (cough, Cowboys).
Speaking of Dallas, how bout them ‘Boys? Dak Prescott has won seven straight becoming only the third rookie to even win that many games and Ezekiel Elliott is on pace for nearly 1,800 rushing yards. Tony Romo and the Cowboys have their best chance to win a title (19.8%) but it might come with the highest paid player on the roster riding the bench.
The NFC East, a joke a season ago with a 9-7 division winner, could put three teams in the playoffs. Of course the Cowboys lead the way but the Giants are in striking distance. New York won its third straight game on Sunday and saw its playoff probability increase 21.5%, the most of any team following Week 9.
The Lions, Raiders, Colts and Ravens also enjoyed double-digit increases in their playoff probabilities with statement wins. Oakland, after soundly defeating Denver, is the only team among the four that is a lock to reach the postseason. The Raiders, at 7-2, are 83.6% likely to return the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
The Eagles and Vikings, once the belles of the ball, are on two and three game losing streaks respectively. Both team’s playoff chances took hits of more than 20% with their latest losses. Despite the rough play, Minnesota is 73.8% likely to reach the postseason thanks to a division lead but Philly (34.1%) is at the bottom of the NFC East and the team’s playoff odds are dwindling.
The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Cowboys, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Giants and Redskins. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs and Broncos.
The least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Lions (29.8%).
Most likely teams with a losing record to make the playoffs: Cardinals (32.0%).
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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Playoffs%||Conf. Champ. %||Super Bowl %|
|New England Patriots||99.87||55.48||35.21|
|Kansas City Chiefs||83.19||10.58||5.05|
|Green Bay Packers||32.63||3.35||1.07|
|New York Giants||43.42||0.78||0.2|
|New Orleans Saints||22.96||0.47||0.15|
|San Diego Chargers||14.51||0.33||0.09|
|Los Angeles Rams||0.88||0.05||0.02|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1.01||0.09||0.01|
|New York Jets||0.2||0.01||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0|