To recap Week 7 in the NFL: there was a bad game in London, a tie Sunday night and not much in-between (the Vikings faltered and the Patriots were tested by an undermanned Steelers squad). The midpoint of the season is quickly approaching, what does the NFL playoff picture look like? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.
Despite a closer than expected contest against Pittsburgh, the Pats remain the most likely Super Bowl champion (28.3%). Tom Brady is completing 75.2% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception. New England dominates the simulations because they are the most likely team to get home field advantage (73.7%) and secure a first round bye (90.0%).
Minnesota’s undefeated season came to an abrupt halt in Philly and Sam Bradford’s play regressed (three turnovers). Losing is never fun but it doesn’t take away from the fact that Mike Zimmer’s team is still one of the best in the NFL (top five in defensive DVOA). Minnesota is the most likely Super Bowl (18.8%) representative from the NFC. Like the Patriots, the Purple and Gold have a high probability of getting a first round bye (62.5%).
The big winner from Week 7 were the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck led the team to a win over Tennessee and Houston got thrashed in Denver. The Colts are still under .500 but firmly back in the AFC South race. Indy’s playoff probability increased by 26.0% and the team is now 43.5% likely to make the playoffs (best chance in the division).
Arizona’s tie with Seattle cost them precious playoff capital. The Cardinals’ chance of reaching the postseason decreased by 11.5%. Carson Palmer and crew can get back on the inside track for a Wild Card with a win over Carolina on Sunday.
The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Vikings, Seahawks, Cowboys, Falcons, Eagles and Packers. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, Colts, Bills and Chiefs.
The least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Redskins (27.6%), Giants (15.2%) and Lions (5.0%).
Most likely teams with a losing record to make the playoffs: Colts (43.5%), Titans (22.1%) and Chargers (21.8%).
There are eight teams with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs and three (Bears, 49ers and Browns) with a 0.0% chance.
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Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
| Team | Playoffs % | Conf. Champ. % | Super Bowl % |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 99.5 | 47.6 | 28.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 94.8 | 36.2 | 18.8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 90.7 | 20.1 | 10.1 |
| Denver Broncos | 86.1 | 17.3 | 8.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 93.6 | 14.7 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 69.4 | 13.6 | 6.3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 69.8 | 11.8 | 5.8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 79.5 | 11.3 | 4.4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 45.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 74.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 55.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 53.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Oakland Raiders | 52.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| San Diego Chargers | 21.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Houston Texans | 32.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 43.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 22.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Washington Redskins | 27.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Detroit Lions | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| New York Giants | 15.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 14.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| New York Jets | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
