Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books. Here is a look at the playoff picture after 10,000 simulations of the 2016 NFL season.
The NFL wheel of destiny continues to spin. The preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl was Green Bay. Then a surprising loss to Minnesota opened the door for Pittsburgh to hold the top spot for a week. New England started hot (3-0) with the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. However a loss to the Bills in Week 4 knocked that Pats from their perch.
Filling the void, at least for this week is the Denver Broncos. The defending champions are undefeated. The title caliber defense is still strong and the offense has improved with Trevor Siemian under center. Denver has a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 20.7% chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions.
Just behind Denver is Minnesota. The Vikings are also 4-0 and sport a championship level defense. The Sam Bradford led team has a 17.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl (that is a sentence I never thought I would type).
Philadelphia, the league’s only other unblemished team has a 10.8% chance to win the Super Bowl (5th best). The Eagles are coming off a bye and will face the Lions in Week 5.
The big winners of Week 4 were the Bills. Rex Ryan’s squad saw its playoff probability increase 33.7% after an upset win over the Patriots in Foxborough. The Steelers and Falcons both dominated conference opponents and as a result enjoyed increases of 25% or more in playoff probability.
The biggest losers at the quarter pole in the season were the Chiefs. Kansas City got rocked by Pittsburgh. Coupled with wins by Denver and Oakland, the Chiefs are now third in the AFC West. The team is also fighting the Ravens, Bengals and Bills for the final wild card spot. KC’s playoff probability decreased by 45.3%.
The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Vikings, Seahawks, Eagles, Falcons, Cowboys and Packers. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Broncos, Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Bills and Ravens.
The least likely team with a 3-1 or better record to make the playoffs is the L.A. Rams (26.5%). No explanation needed.
The most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs are the Panthers (31.1%). Though it is time to start panicking in Carolina and Arizona.
Cleveland is 0-4 but the Browns make the playoffs twice in 10,000 simulations. So yes, we are saying there is a chance.
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Playoffs %||Conf. Champ. %||Super Bowl %|
|New England Patriots||88.15||22.19||11.49|
|Green Bay Packers||67.38||6.83||3.15|
|Kansas City Chiefs||24.16||0.87||0.27|
|Los Angeles Rams||26.53||0.47||0.14|
|San Diego Chargers||11.64||0.41||0.11|
|New York Giants||12.49||0.23||0.03|
|New Orleans Saints||7.97||0.17||0.03|
|New York Jets||3.87||0.07||0.03|
|San Francisco 49ers||1.77||0.04||0.02|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||2.39||0.02||0|