NFL Simulation 09.28.16

NFL Simulation 09.28.16

Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books. Here is a look at the playoff picture after 10,000 simulations of the 2016 NFL season.

We have another new No. 1 team. Green Bay was the preseason favorite, Pittsburgh held the top spot for a week and now New England reigns over all. The Patriots are 3-0 after starting a combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. One week away from the return of Tom Brady and the Pats are already the most likely Super Bowl champion (25.3%).

Minnesota and Denver, two other 3-0 teams, are the next most likely champions. The Vikings continue to overcome injuries on the strength of their defense. Minnesota has a 12.8% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Broncos have a 11.3% chance to win after an impressive offensive performance by Trevor Siemian against the Bengals.

The big winners of Week 3 were the Eagles. Philly didn’t just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, they dominated in every facet of the game. Carson Wentz continues to shine as an improved defense stifles opposing passing attacks. Doug Pederson’s squad has a 76.4% chance to make the playoffs (up from 32.4% last week) and the fifth best Super Bowl probability.

On the flip side, the Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers and Giants all lost as favorites last week. Each team’s playoff probability decreased by double-digits.

The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Vikings, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Panthers and Cowboys. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers and Texans.

There’s still a chance. The Browns are 0-3 but have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. Yet, the Bucs, Jags, Saints, Redskins, 49ers, Titans, Bears and Browns might as well look to the 2017 season as each team has a 0.0% chance to win the Super Bowl with at least two losses through three weeks.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffsConf. Champ.Super Bowl
New England Patriots97.8%42.1%25.3%
Minnesota Vikings92.6%26.2%12.8%
Denver Broncos88.6%21.9%11.3%
Seattle Seahawks77.8519.5%10.3%
Philadelphia Eagles76.4%14.7%6.7%
Baltimore Ravens75.4%8.8%3.8%
Green Bay Packers71.7%11.0%5.1%
Kansas City Chiefs69.5%11.6%5.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers60.6%6.4%2.8%
Carolina Panthers59.5%7.7%3.6%
Dallas Cowboys59.4%8.1%3.8%
Houston Texans51.2%1.9%0.6%
Arizona Cardinals45.9%6.4%3.1%
Indianapolis Colts44.5%2.5%1.1%
Atlanta Falcons43.6%3.4%1.2%
New York Giants33.8%2.1%0.6%
Oakland Raiders30.4%1.8%0.8%
San Diego Chargers20.1%1.1%0.5%
Buffalo Bills17.5%0.7%0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals15.3%0.6%0.2%
Detroit Lions11.4%0.3%0.1%
Miami Dolphins10.6%0.3%0.1%
Los Angeles Rams9.9%0.3%0.1%
Tennessee Titans7.9%0.1%0.0%
New York Jets6.4%0.1%0.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.7%0.0%0.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars4.1%0.0%0.0%
New Orleans Saints4.0%0.1%0.0%
Washington Redskins3.8%0.1%0.0%
San Francisco 49ers3.6%0.0%0.0%
Chicago Bears0.9%0.0%0.0%
Cleveland Browns0.1%0.0%0.0%

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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