NFL Simulation 09.21.16

NFL Simulation 09.21.16

It’s still early but after two games the good teams are separating themselves from the bad. A lot can still happen but here is a look at the playoff picture after 10,000 simulations of the 2016 NFL season.

We have a new No. 1. Pittsburgh is the most likely playoff team (89.9%) and Super Bowl champion (16.9%). The Steelers are 2-0 for the fourth time under Mike Tomlin. The previous three times the team made the playoffs and twice went to the Super Bowl.

Behind the Steelers are the Patriots and Panthers. New England and Carolina are the only other teams with better than an 80% chance to reach the postseason and double-digit odds to win the title.

Green Bay, our preseason Super Bowl favorite, now has the fourth best odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy after losing a disappointing game to Minnesota on Sunday night.

The biggest winners of Week 2 were the Texans (25.3%), Vikings (22.8%) and Cardinals (19.9%). Houston got revenge for a brutal playoff loss to the Chiefs, Minnesota knocked off rival Green Bay and Arizona bounced back after a surprising Week 1 loss.

San Francisco (21.9%), Indy (19.9%) and Washington (18.4%) saw the biggest drop in playoff probability after Week 2. The Colts and Redskins are each 0-2 with less than a 30% chance to return to the postseason. The Niners, after an impressive win over the Rams, are who we thought they were. San Francisco got drubbed by Carolina on Sunday.

The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Panthers, Packers, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants and Seahawks. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Ravens and Bengals.

Baltimore (48.2%) and Philadelphia (32.4%) are the least likely 2-0 teams to make the playoffs. Historically, teams that start the season 0-2 have a 12% chance to reach the postseason. The Colts are the only team that might buck the trend. Indy has a 27.1% chance turnaround its fortune after losing the first two games of the season.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffsConf. ChampSuper Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers89.9%28.8%16.9%
New England Patriots86.6%21.9%12.2%
Carolina Panthers80.9%21.4%11.5%
Green Bay Packers77.2%18.4%9.3%
Arizona Cardinals68.5%15.3%8.0%
Denver Broncos75.6%15.3%7.8%
Minnesota Vikings73.4%13.7%6.4%
Houston Texans77.0%11.2%5.3%
Seattle Seahawks60.2%10.9%5.1%
New York Giants61.8%6.7%2.6%
Kansas City Chiefs43.6%5.7%2.6%
Dallas Cowboys48.0%6.2%2.5%
Cincinnati Bengals48.0%4.8%2.2%
Baltimore Ravens48.2%4.0%1.6%
Indianapolis Colts27.1%2.2%1.1%
Oakland Raiders27.1%2.1%1.0%
Philadelphia Eagles32.4%2.2%0.8%
New York Jets27.3%1.9%0.7%
Atlanta Falcons22.0%1.7%0.5%
Detroit Lions19.1%1.0%0.4%
San Diego Chargers19.9%1.1%0.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17.6%1.0%0.3%
Buffalo Bills9.0%0.4%0.2%
Los Angeles Rams10.3%0.5%0.1%
New Orleans Saints6.7%0.4%0.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.9%0.3%0.1%
San Francisco 49ers9.0%0.4%0.1%
Miami Dolphins7.5%0.3%0.1%
Washington Redskins7.0%0.3%0.1%
Chicago Bears6.1%0.2%0.1%
Tennessee Titans6.3%0.1%0.1%
Cleveland Browns0.1%0.0%0.0%

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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