NFL Simulation 09.14.16

NFL Simulation 09.14.16

The first week of the NFL season is in the books. It is important to not overreact to one game but these early contests do have an impact on the playoff picture. Here is an updated look at the 2016 NFL season after 10,000 simulations.

Green Bay is still the most likely playoff team (87.0%) and Super Bowl champion (15.4%) despite a relatively close game against the Jags. The Packers title odds improved mostly because of surprising losses by Carolina and Arizona.

The Jimmy Garoppolo era began with a bang. The Patriots upended the Cardinals as 9.5 point road underdogs without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. New England is now the second most likely team (13.1%) to win the Super Bowl.

The biggest winners of Week 1 were the Giants (55.1%), Buccaneers (32.0%) and Lions (27.4%). Each with a road victory saw their respective team’s playoff probabilities increase by more than 10%.

Can I get a mulligan? These teams would like to replay their first game: Dallas (42.7%) and Indianapolis (46.9%). The Cowboys and Colts are the only teams that saw a double-digit drop in their playoff chances.

The most likely NFC playoff teams are the Packers, Seahawks, Panthers, Giants, Vikings and Cardinals. The most likely AFC playoff teams are the Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs and Texans.

Philadelphia (14.2%) and San Francisco (6.3%) are the least likely 1-0 teams to make the playoffs. The Panthers and Cardinals will make the playoffs as 0-1 teams. Outside of Carolina and Arizona, two of the top Super Bowl contenders, Dallas (42.7%) and Washington (25.4%) have the best playoffs odds for 0-1 teams thanks to playing in the weak NFC East.

After a disappointing 29-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and seeing starting quarterback Robert Griffin III suffer a serious shoulder injury, the Browns now have a 0.0% chance to reach the postseason.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamPlayoffsConf. ChampSuper Bowl
Green Bay87.0%27.5%15.4%
New England84.3%23.6%13.1%
Seattle82.1%22.9%12.2%
Pittsburgh80.0%20.6%11.2%
Carolina Panthers73.9%16.7%9.1%
Cincinnati Bengals64.1%10.8%5.3%
Denver Broncos62.4%11.1%4.9%
Kansas City Chiefs58.0%9.8%4.6%
Arizona Cardinals48.7%7.3%3.5%
Indianapolis Colts46.9%7.3%3.2%
Minnesota Vikings50.6%6.4%2.9%
Dallas Cowboys42.7%5.1%2.3%
Houston Texans51.7%5.4%2.3%
Oakland Raiders42.9%4.9%2.1%
New York Giants55.1%5.2%2.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers32.0%2.2%0.8%
Baltimore Ravens31.5%2.3%0.8%
Washington Redskins25.4%1.9%0.7%
Buffalo Bills18.6%1.4%0.6%
Atlanta Falcons15.3%1.2%0.5%
Detroit Lions27.4%1.3%0.4%
Jacksonville Jaguars18.8%1.0%0.4%
New York Jets16.8%1.2%0.4%
Chicago Bears15.8%0.8%0.3%
Los Angeles Rams12.9%0.6%0.3%
Miami Dolphins11.2%0.4%0.2%
San Diego Chargers8.8%0.5%0.2%
New Orleans Saints10.8%0.4%0.1%
Philadelphia Eagles14.2%0.4%0.1%
San Francisco 49ers6.3%0.2%0.1%
Tennessee Titans3.6%0.1%0.0%
Cleveland Browns0.0%0.0%0.0%

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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