Believe it or not but we are already at the quarter point in the NFL season. The Broncos, Vikings and Eagles are undefeated; the Browns are winless. The playoff picture is taking shape but much is left to be decided. With that in mind, here are a few teams with value to reach the postseason.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs at SportsBook.ag and compare that to our projected odds that they make the postseason based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, New England is -1800 to return to the playoffs. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to reach the postseason 94.7% (which is 1800/(100+1800)) of the time. The Pats are projected to make the playoffs 88.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -1800 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Note: The Panthers, Cardinals and Browns do not have odds to reach the postseason. Cleveland is winless and it is time to start panicking in Carolina and Arizona.
Current odds: +285, Implied Probability: 25.9%
Bills make the playoffs 51.2% of the time
Rex Ryan’s team shutout the New England Patriots in Foxborough for a statement win. The Bills have bounced back from an 0-2 start. With Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy clicking on offense, Buffalo is in position to make a run at the playoffs.
Current odds: -115, Implied Probability: 46.5%
Cowboys make the playoffs 69.8% of the time
There is a lot to be excited about if you are a Cowboys fan. Dak Prescott has won three straight starts. Ezekiel Elliott has posted his second straight 100 yard rushing performance. Tony Romo is getting healthier and Dez Bryant could be back this week. Dallas is currently projected to reach the postseason as a Wild Card team.
Current odds: -1000, Implied Probability: 90.9%
Broncos make the playoffs 97.4% of the time
The Broncos defense is filthy. Opposing offenses are having no success through the air. Denver’s defense has allowed just 4.3 net yards per attempt (per Pro Football Reference). If they maintain that number it would be the lowest in the league since the 2008 Steelers, who won the Super Bowl. The Trevor Siemian (jokes, it is all about the defense) led squad is our favorite to win the championship and the most likely AFC playoff team.
Other teams with value: Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks, Colts, Chargers and Steelers.
Below are the odds for each NFL team to make the playoffs.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Playoff Chance|
|Green Bay Packers||-800||88.9||67.4|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+135||42.6||24.2|
|Los Angeles Rams||+200||33.3||26.5|
|New England Patriots||-1800||94.7||88.2|
|New Orleans Saints||+800||11.1||8|
|New York Giants||+200||33.3||12.5|
|New York Jets||+850||10.5||3.9|
|San Diego Chargers||+850||10.5||11.6|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1325||7||1.8|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+725||12.1||2.4|