Four teams and two games remain to decide the Super Bowl participants. We have simulated the NFL Playoffs 10,000 times to find out which teams will win the conference championships and who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

NFC Championship

This game is expected to be a shootout. With a total over 60 and two teams that can score points we should see fireworks. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have won eight straight. The Packers quarterback has thrown 24 touchdowns and one interception in his last nine games. Rodgers has also been very good in Atlanta throwing ten touchdowns and no interceptions in four starts in the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons quarterback isn’t too shabby either. Matt Ryan has tossed 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his last nine games. The Atlanta offense was the highest scoring in the league and should have great success against the Packers secondary. It is this matchup that should determine the game. Green Bay’s defense is 23rd in weighted DVOA, the worst among remaining playoff teams.

The Falcons are 65.9% likely to win and advance to the Super Bowl.

AFC Championship

Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown present matchup nightmares for every team. However, the Patriots are great at taking away what an opposing team does best. The Steelers have won nine straight and have the best remaining defense per DVOA (No. 7) but Roethlisberger has struggled against New England.

The Pats have won nine of the last 12 meetings against the Steelers and have only lost at home once in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era to Pittsburgh. Brady is 16-3 straight-up at home in the playoffs.

The Patriots are 74.5% likely to win and advance to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl

The AFC is -3.5 point favorites over the NFC in the lookahead lines for the Super Bowl. The winner of the Patriots-Steelers game will be favored over the representative from the NFC.

The Patriots are the favorite in Vegas to win it all and the simulations agree giving New England a 50.5% chance of winning a fifth title.


NFL Playoffs

Conference Championships start Sunday

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TeamSuper Bowl Probability
New England Patriots50.5%
Atlanta Falcons26.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers12.6%
Green Bay Packers10.8%