The Wild Card Round is over and eight teams remain in contention. Which will emerge to hoist the Lombardi Trophy?

We simulated the NFL Playoffs 10,000 times to find out. Lets start with the conference championships and work our way to the Super Bowl.

AFC Championship

The Patriots are massive favorites to win the AFC. Not only is New England arguably the best team in football, the Pats also get to host the Brock Osweiler lead Texans this weekend. Despite Houston looking good in a win over the Raiders, teams that are underdogs of 14 or more points have gone 4-85 straight-up since 2003.

The winner of the Chiefs-Steelers matchup will have roughly a 1-in-3 chance of upsetting the Patriots.

TeamTo Win AFC
Patriots66.0%
Chiefs17.6%
Steelers13.7%
Texans2.7%

NFC Championship

Unlike the AFC, the NFC race should be more balanced. Each team has at least a 10% chance of winning the conference with the Cowboys the clear favorites. Dallas has home field advantage but difficult contests remain against the Packers and the winner of the Falcons-Seahawks game.

TeamTo Win NFC
Cowboys41.5%
Falcons29.2%
Seahawks18.1%
Packers11.2%

Super Bowl

We already talked about the Patriots easy path to the AFC. While New England would have tough matchups against any of the remaining teams except Houston (all others rank in the top 10 in DVOA), the fact remains the Texans are an easy out and thus the Pats are the most likely team to reach and win the Super Bowl.

The other top seeds (Cowboys, Falcons and Chiefs) have a combined 38.6% chance to win it all compared to the Patriots 43.4%. The Parkers are the hottest team in football right now but will need to win back-to-back road games to advance to the Super Bowl. For all of Aaron Rodgers heroics, Green Bay’s odds of winning it all are not that different than the Texans.

 


NFL Playoffs

The Divisional Round starts Saturday

Build your winning system today


TeamTo Win Super Bowl
Patriots43.4%
Cowboys18.3%
Falcons 12.2%
Chiefs8.1%
Seahawks7.1%
Steelers6.5%
Packers3.8%
Texans0.6%