Four teams, Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys and Seahawks, have locked up a postseason berth that leaves eight spots up for grabs. Which teams have value to make the playoffs?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to reach the postseason at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they make the playoffs based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, the Broncos are +400 to play past Week 17. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Denver they would need to make the playoffs 20.0% (which is 100/(400+100)) of the time. We project the defending champions to reach the postseason 9.3% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +400 odds.
Current odds: +200, Implied Probability: 33.3%
Ravens make the playoffs 38.8% of the time
Joe Flacco and crew can be eliminated this week if they lose against the Steelers and the Dolphins win/tie against the Bills. If you place this bet you are banking on the Ravens continuing their hot streak against Pittsburgh. Baltimore has won four in a row and nine of the last 12 against the Steelers.
Current odds: -200, Implied Probability: 66.7%
Lions make the playoffs 71.4% of the time
It appears the Lions are headed for a winner-take-all Week 17 showdown with the Packers to decide the NFC North. The game will be played on Ford Field where the Lions are 6-1 this season. Even if Detroit loses to Green Bay they can make it as a Wild Card thanks to Washington losing on Monday night to Carolina.
Cowboys vs. Lions
There is Pro System pick for this game that is 61% ATS
Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%
Dolphins make the playoffs 56.8% of the time
There are currently three scenarios where the Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth this week, but the common denominator is that Miami needs to win. Matt Moore looked good in the win over the Jets last Saturday. The Fins can lock up a spot by winning out. The team’s last game is against the Patriots who might have the No. 1 seed secured after this week.
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Projected Chance|
|Green Bay Packers||-200||66.7||58.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-120||54.5||45.9|