The regular season is in the books and we have simulated the NFL Playoffs 10,000 times to determine the most likely AFC and NFC champions as well as each team’s probability of winning the Super Bowl. Football is hard to predict but based on our math, here are the future bets (from 5Dimes) you should place before Wild Card weekend.

AFC Championship

Only one team is offering value to win the AFC Championship and it’s not the Patriots. New England advances to the Super Bowl nearly 50% of the time but at -128 odds, Brady and Belichick are overpriced.

Defense wins championships, especially elite pass defenses. Since 1990-91, of the top 15 pass defenses by DVOA, seven ended up winning the Super Bowl and three more lost in the conference championship. Why does this matter? Jacksonville is No. 1 in pass DVOA this year and if they are to make a deep postseason run it won’t be on the arm of Blake Bortles. The Jags have lost two straight, but that’s not something bettors should worry about in the Wild Card round or when placing a bet on Jacksonville +900 to win the AFC.

If you can’t swallow placing a bet on Bortles (I don’t blame you), the Steelers +280 is offering fair odds. Of course, Antonio Brown’s healthy is a major concern.

Odds to win the AFC

TeamOddsProjected Probability (%)
Patriots-12847.6
Steelers+28027
Jaguars+90015.4
Chiefs+9008.9
Titans+45000.8
Bills+50000.4

NFC Championship

According to Elias, the Rams are the second team to go from worst (14.0 points per game) to first (29.9 points per game) in scoring. With an MVP candidate in Todd Gurley and a balanced team (6th in defense and 2nd in special teams DVOA), L.A. is the most likely team to finish on top of the NFC. At +470, the 3rd best odds to win the conference, Sean McVay’s team is the best value bet on the board.

The Eagles (+500) are another team underpriced by bookmakers according to our simulations. Nick Foles is no Carson Wentz but a first-round bye plus home-field advantage can’t go overlooked by bettors.

Odds to win the NFC

TeamOddsProjected Probability (%)
Vikings+17225.2
Saints+43511.9
Rams+47027.2
Eagles+50025.9
Falcons+9003.4
Panthers+11506.4

Super Bowl

Unless you skipped right to the Super Bowl section you probably have a good idea of which teams are offering bettors value to win the NFL Championship. A week ago, we encouraged our readers to take the Rams and Jags. Nothing has changed other than each team’s odds inflating slightly after Week 17 losses. These teams are mirror images of each other, elite defenses (top 5 against the pass) that rely on strong rushing attacks to drive the offense.

If you are feeling frisky, there is also value on a Rams-Jags Super Bowl (+5750). The implied probability suggests a 1.7% chance we get this exact matchup, according to our numbers it occurs 2.5% of the time.

Odds to win the Super Bowl

TeamOddsProjected Probability (%)
Patriots+22026.7
Vikings+42512.5
Steelers+57514.1
Saints+9505.3
Rams+115015.1
Eagles+125010.7
Jaguars+17507.5
Chiefs+17503.8
Falcons+23001.2
Panthers+30002.9
Titans+100000.2
Bills+115000.1

Photo Courtesy of Joe Nicholson – USA Today Sports