NFL Division Value Bets

NFL Division Value Bets

One week down, 16 more to go. After a wildly entertaining opening week how have the division odds changed? Which teams should you bet to win the division crowns?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division using Sports Insights free betting odds and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, Pittsburgh is +110 to win the AFC North. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Steelers they would need to take the division 47.6% (which is 100/(100+110)) of the time. Ben Roethlisberger and company are projected to best the AFC North 55.9% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at +110 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

New England Patriots

Current odds: -250, Implied Probability: 71.4%

Patriots win the AFC East 77.3% of the time

Wizards never die, neither will the magician Bill Belichick. The future Hall of Fame coach pulled a rabbit out of his hat beating the Arizona Cardinals as 9.5 point underdogs without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. The -250 odds (bet $250 to win $100) will scare off casual bettors but don’t be afraid. The question isn’t whether or not the Pats will repeat as AFC East champions for an eighth straight year but how quickly the race will be over.

Seattle Seahawks

Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%

Seahawks win the NFC West 68.1% of the time

A two-point victory over Miami and an ankle injury for Russell Wilson doesn’t inspire confidence in the Seahawks. However, a win is a win and Wilson plans to play Sunday vs. the Rams. Arizona laid an egg in Week 1 and the Niners and Rams are two of the worst teams in the league. I’d jump on the -120 odds before they go up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current odds: +650, Implied Probability: 13.3%

Bucs win the NFC South 20.1% of the time

Jameis Winston is on the rise, so are the Bucs. If Carolina’s Super Bowl hangover lingers Tampa Bay will be in position to take the NFC South for the first time since 2007. The Buccaneers are one of the biggest longshots with value.

Other teams with value: Steelers (+110), Texans (+180), Broncos (+220), Giants (+135), Cowboys (+250) and Lions (+1200).

Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win their respective divisions.

DivisionTeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
AFC EastNE-25071.4%77.3%
BUF+60014.3%9.0%
NYJ+60014.3%8.3%
MIA+85010.5%5.4%
AFC NorthPIT+11047.6%55.9%
CIN+17536.4%33.0%
BAL+35022.2%11.0%
CLE+20004.8%0.1%
AFC SouthHOU+18035.7%43.8%
IND+15539.2539.2%
JAX+34022.7%14.2%
TEN+65013.3%2.8%
AFC WestDEN+22031.3%40.2%
KC+17536.4%34.3%
OAK+24029.4%22.0%
SD+65013.3%3.4%
NFC EastNYG+13542.6%43.6%
DAL+25028.6%30.2%
WSH+25028.6%17.3%
PHI+60014.3%8.9%
NFC NorthGB-25071.4%68.0%
MIN+30025.0%19.6%
DET+12007.7%8.2%
CHI+12007.7%4.2%
NFC SouthCAR-25071.4%64.8%
TB+65013.3%20.1%
ATL+65013.3%8.9%
NO+65013.3%6.2%
NFC WestSEA-12054.5%68.1%
ARI+13542.6%24.5%
LA+11008.3%5.0%
SF+200047.6%2.3%

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