One week down, 16 more to go. After a wildly entertaining opening week how have the division odds changed? Which teams should you bet to win the division crowns?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season. For example, Pittsburgh is -215 to win the AFC North. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Steelers they would need to take the division 68.3% (which is 215/(100+215)) of the time. Ben Roethlisberger and company are projected to best the AFC North 65.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -215 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +153, Implied Probability: 39.5%
Cowboys win the NFC East 57.4% of the time
Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line often get the headlines in Dallas but the big story after the Cowboys win over the Giants on Sunday night was the defense. After holding New York to just a field goal optimism is high for the unit. The defense finished 18th in DVOA last year, if it can take a step forward under coordinator Rob Marinelli the defending NFC East champs will be tough to stop.
Current odds: +175, Implied Probability: 36.4%
Raiders win the AFC West 45.2% of the time
Last year was not a fluke. Oakland went on the road against a potential playoff team and beat the Titans 26-16 to start the season. The division will be a slugfest once again but the Raiders are the most likely team to come out on top.
New England Patriots
Current odds: -640, Implied Probability: 86.5%
Patriots win the AFC East 91.5% of the time
Don’t hit the panic button just yet. New England looked off in Week 1 against the Chiefs but the Pats are still the most likely Super Bowl winner according to the numbers. Brady and Belichick have won the division eight straight years (and 13 of last 14). Before the season began the reigning champs were -1400 to win the AFC East, now you can get them at a serious discount after one bad game.
2017 NFL Pro Systems
NFL Picks are 5-1, +3.71 units to start the season
Other teams with value: Panthers (+195), Seahawks (-240), Ravens (+315), Chiefs (+205) and Colts (+610, if Luck returns in next few weeks).
Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win their respective divisions.