Technically, every division in football is up for grabs but that’s not true according to the bookmakers. Thanks to sizeable leads, division odds for the AFC East, NFC East and NFC West are off the board. That still leaves five divisions and here are the teams you should bet to win them.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division at and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, the Steelers are 1/5 to win the AFC North. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Pittsburgh they would need to take the division 83.3% (which is 1/(5+1)) of the time. We project Ben Roethlisberger and crew to win the division 76.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 1/5 odds.

Tennessee Titans

Current odds: 8/5, Implied Probability: 38.5%

Titans win the AFC South 44.5% of the time

With three games remaining the Titans are tied with the Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South. Tennessee has won three of their last four games without committing a turnover. A strong run game and an improving defense have the Titans in position to win the division for the first time since 2008.

NFL Week 15 – Chiefs vs. Titans

There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 55% ATS

Get game matches for this system 

Detroit Lions

Current odds: 5/11, Implied Probability: 68.8%

Lions win the NFC North 77.7% of the time

The Lions just find ways to win. Detroit has eight fourth quarter comebacks and has won five straight. Matthew Stafford is dealing with an injury but a win this week (plus a loss by the Packers) would give the division to the Lions for the first time in 23 years.

These are the only two teams with value to win their divisions. Below are the chances for each team with betting odds.

DivisionTeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
AFC NorthSteelers1/583.376.4
AFC SouthTexans1/266.750.8
AFC WestChiefs4/1173.371.9
NFC NorthLions5/1168.877.7
NFC SouthFalcons1/37572