NFL Division Value Bets 11.16.16

NFL Division Value Bets 11.16.16

The division races are tightening in the NFL. The Patriots and Cowboys look like locks to win the division crowns but most of the divisions feature multiple teams that could finish first. Which teams should you bet to win the division titles?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division at Paddy Power and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, New England is 1/100 to win the AFC East. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Pats they would need to take the division 99.0% (which is 100/(100+1)) of the time. We project Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to win the division 97.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 1/100 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Dallas Cowboys

Current odds: 1/4, Implied Probability: 80.0%

Cowboys win the NFC East 91.4% of the time

With a league best 8-1 record and a road win over Pittsburgh it isn’t hard to argue that the Cowboys are the best team in football. Our simulations still have the Patriots as the most likely Super Bowl champion but the ‘Boys aren’t far behind. The NFC East could send three teams to the playoffs this year and Dallas is the best of the bunch.


Cowboys vs. Ravens

There is a Pro System trend for this game that has gone 259-198 (57%) ATS

Get game matches for this system


Minnesota Vikings

Current odds: 9/5, Implied Probability: 35.7%

Vikings win the NFC North 57.3% of the time

Minnesota is on a month long losing streak and the offense is a mess but someone has to win this division. Do you really trust the division leading Lions? Detroit has trailed in the fourth quarter of every game this season. Green Bay is in striking distance but the Packers might be playing worse than the Vikings right now. Minnesota is the best of a bad situation.

Seattle Seahawks

Current odds: 1/5, Implied Probability: 83.3%

Seahawks win the NFC West 95.9% of the time

Russell Wilson is healthy, Kam Chancellor is back on defense and Thomas Rawls is expected back in the lineup this week. The Seahawks are set to hit their stride just as the playoffs approach. This is a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Other teams with value: Ravens 5/4, Titans 10/3, Chiefs 13/10 and Falcons 1/4.

Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win their respective divisions.

DivisionTeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
AFC EastNE1/1009997.5
MIA18/15.31.4
BUF25/13.81.2
NYJ200/10.50
AFC NorthPIT1/15042.6
BAL5/444.448
CIN9/218.29.4
CLEN/A00
AFC SouthHOU8/1565.256.6
TEN10/323.126.9
IND10/323.116.4
JAX200/10.50.1
AFC WestKC13/1043.544.6
OAK8/538.529.5
DEN5/228.625.9
SD100/110.1
NFC EastDAL1/48091.4
NYG5/116.73
WAS8/111.13.4
PHI14/16.72.1
NFC NorthDET6/44033.5
MIN9/535.757.3
GB9/535.79.2
CHI200/10.50.1
NFC SouthATL1/48082.1
TB11/215.42.8
NO7/112.512.3
CAR12/17.72.7
NFC WestSEA1/583.395.9
ARI7/222.24
LA13/17.10.1
SF500/10.20

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