NFL Conference Championship Value Bets

NFL Conference Championship Value Bets

Which team will win the Super Bowl? That depends on who you ask but for any team to reach the title game they must first win their conference championship. Here are a few teams with value to win the AFC and NFC championships.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the conference championship using the odds at 5dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, New England is +292 to win the AFC Championship. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Pats they would need to win the conference championship 25.5% (which is 100/(100+292)) of the time. The Patriots are projected to win the AFC title game 21.9% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +292 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current odds: +355, Implied Probability: 22.0%

Steelers win the AFC title 28.8% of the time

The Steelers are the top team in football right now. Pittsburgh is our most likely Super Bowl champion after beating two division winners from last year to start the season. With an improving defense and the return of Le’Veon Bell in a week, the rest of the AFC is on alert.

Carolina Panthers

Current odds: +455, Implied Probability: 18.0%

Panthers win the NFC title 21.4% of the time

Cam Newton has questionable taste in hats but he still plays like an MVP. Against the Niners, Newton threw for 353 yards and four touchdowns. The quarterback is enjoying the return of Kelvin Benjamin who missed all of last season with an ACL injury. The receiver has 13 catches for 199 yards and three touchdowns through two games. The Panthers won’t win 15 games again but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them in the NFC championship game again.

Minnesota Vikings

Current odds: +850, Implied Probability: 10.5%

Vikings win the NFC title 13.7% of the time

Sam Bradford showed why the Vikings gave up a first round pick for him Sunday night. The former top pick completed 22 of 31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota’s win over Green Bay. The loss of Teddy Bridgewater and now Adrian Peterson hurts but with a strong defense and solid players on offense (Stefon Diggs) the Vikings are in contention for the team’s first NFC title since 1976.

Other teams with value: Denver Broncos (+680), Houston Texans (+1110) and Dallas Cowboys (+1825).

Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win their respective conference

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
Pittsburgh Steelers+35522.0%28.8%
New England Patriots+29225.5%21.9%
Carolina Panthers+45518.0%21.4%
Green Bay Packers+40020.0%18.4%
Arizona Cardinals+49016.9%15.3%
Denver Broncos+68012.8%15.3%
Minnesota Vikings+85010.5%13.7%
Houston Texans+11108.3%11.2%
Seattle Seahawks+50516.5%10.9%
New York Giants+10159.0%6.7%
Kansas City Chiefs+10258.9%5.7%
Dallas Cowboys+18255.2%6.2%
Cincinnati Bengals+12257.5%4.8%
Baltimore Ravens+15256.2%4.0%
Indianapolis Colts+24254.0%2.2%
Oakland Raiders+24503.9%2.1%
Philadelphia Eagles+23004.2%2.2%
New York Jets+20504.7%1.9%
Atlanta Falcons+38002.6%1.7%
Detroit Lions+38002.6%1.0%
San Diego Chargers+28503.4%1.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+40002.4%0.9%
Buffalo Bills+75001.3%0.4%
Los Angeles Rams+60001.6%0.5%
New Orleans Saints+66001.5%0.4%
Jacksonville Jaguars+34002.9%0.3%
San Francisco 49ers+100001.0%0.4%
Miami Dolphins+75001.3%0.3%
Washington Redskins+40002.4%0.3%
Chicago Bears+80001.2%0.2%
Tennessee Titans+60001.6%0.1%
Cleveland Browns+250000.4%0.0%

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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