NFL Conference Championship Value Bets 11.23.16

FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 26:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots reacts before a game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium on October 26, 2014 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Every team’s goal is to win the Super Bowl but to get there a team must first win its conference. Which teams are offering value to win the conference championships?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the conference championship at 5dimes and compare that to our projected chance that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, Oakland is +850 to win the AFC Championship. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Raiders they would need to win the conference championship 10.5% (which is 100/(100+850) of the time. The Raiders, currently the top seed in the AFC, are projected to win the conference title just 8.7% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +850 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

New England Patriots

Current odds: +102, Implied Probability: 50.5%

Patriots win the AFC title 52.1% of the time

Don’t get it twisted; the Patriots are still the best team in football (30.1% likely to win the Super Bowl). Sure, if the playoffs started today, the Pats would be the second seed in the AFC and there is a logjam at the top of the conference with Oakland, Kansas City and Denver competing to give New England a run for their money. However, this is not the year to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. In fact, the tight AFC race has allowed the Pats to stay at plus-money to win the conference championship this late in the season. Move on this bet before New England becomes a heavy favorite.


Jets vs. Patriots

There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 141-86 (62%) ATS

Get game matches for this system


Dallas Cowboys

Current odds: +260, Implied Probability: 278%

Cowboys win the NFC title 47.6% of the time

Seattle is the oddsmakers’ favorite to win the NFC but after 10,000 simulations the Cowboys come out on top. America’s team is the most likely squad in the conference to get home field advantage (59.8%). That means the NFC title will go through Dallas.

Kansas City Chiefs

Current odds: +1150, Implied Probability: 8.0%

Chiefs win the AFC title 14.1% of the time

Sell on good news and buy on bad. The Chiefs had a lackluster performance on Sunday losing to Tampa Bay 19-17. Despite the poor play, KC still controls its own destiny in the AFC West. If Alex Smith and crew can win the division crown there is a good chance they earn a top two seed in the AFC and position themselves to return to the conference championship game for the first time since 1993.

Other teams with value: Broncos +965, Eagles +4750

Below are the odds for team’s with at least a 1-in-1,000 chance to win their respective conference.

TeamOddsImplied Probability (%)Projected Chance (%)
New England Patriots+10250.552.1
Dallas Cowboys+26027.847.6
Seattle Seahawks+25028.628.3
Kansas City Chiefs+11508.014.1
Denver Broncos+9659.412.8
Oakland Raiders+85010.58.7
Atlanta Falcons+9509.55.7
Minnesota Vikings+14506.55.3
Philadelphia Eagles+47502.14.3
Pittsburgh Steelers+82510.83.3
Baltimore Ravens+22754.23.0
Washington Redskins+17005.62.4
Arizona Cardinals+22504.32.0
Detroit Lions+15506.11.9
Buffalo Bills+55001.81.8
New York Giants+11508.01.8
Tennessee Titans+55001.81.4
Houston Texans+21504.41.3
Miami Dolphins+27503.50.6
Indianapolis Colts+18005.30.6
New Orleans Saints+65501.50.4
Cincinnati Bengals+91001.10.4
Green Bay Packers+23754.00.3
San Diego Chargers+91001.10.1
Carolina Panthers+22504.30.1

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