Every team’s goal is to win the Super Bowl but to get there a team must first win its conference. Which teams are offering value to win the conference championships?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the conference championship at 5dimes and compare that to our projected chance that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016-17 NFL Playoffs. For example, New England is -158 to win the AFC Championship. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to win the conference championship 61.2% (which is 158/(100+158) of the time. The Pats are projected to win the conference title just 63.3% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at -158 odds.

The Patriots, Cowboys and Raiders all have value to win their respective conference. We covered why you would want to place a bet on them in our Super Bowl value bets article.

Kansas City Chiefs

Current odds: +420, Implied Probability: 19.2%

Chiefs win the AFC title 20.4% of the time

With Tom Brady and the Patriots sitting on top of the AFC it is easy to forget how good this Kansas City team is. The Chiefs are 10th in weighted offensive DVOA, have an above average defense and one of the best special teams units in the league. KC also dominates the turnover game leading the NFL in turnover differential (+16). The Chiefs can upset the Patriots and win the AFC.

Atlanta Falcons

Current odds: +330, Implied Probability: 23.3%

Falcons win the NFC title 29.2% of the time

Atlanta has an MVP candidate, the NFL sack leader and the best offense in the league. The Falcons are averaging 33 points per game and can beat you through the air (3rd in passing yards) or on the ground (5th in rushing yards). As John Madden said, “Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game.” The Falcons have been scoring the most points all season.

ConferenceTeamOddsImplied Probability (%)Projected Chance (%)
AFCPatriots-15861.263.3
Steelers+41019.69.2
Chiefs+42019.220.4
Texans+35002.81.3
Dolphins+48002.01.6
Raiders+48002.04.3
NFCCowboys+14840.350.5
Falcons+33023.329.2
Packers+40519.85.3
Seahawks+55015.410.5
Giants+13506.93.0
Lions+45002.21.5