The first game of the 2017 NCAA tournament tips tomorrow tonight. Before all the Madness begins, here are teams with value to win the college basketball championship.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, North Carolina is the favorite at +700, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Tar Heels they would need to win it all 12.5% (which is 100/(700+100)) of the time. UNC is projected to win March Madness 10.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +700 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.1%
Zags wins the tournament 20.6% of the time
We told you to bet the Zags here, here, here, and here, just to reference a few of the times we trumpeted the Bulldogs as national title contenders. If you didn’t act in the past you are in luck. Gonzaga is the most likely team to cut down the nets in Phoenix and the team’s odds are the highest they have been in months.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current odds: +3500, Implied Probability: 2.8%
WVU wins the tournament 5.4% of the time
Press-Virginia is the 5th best team in kenpom’s adjusted efficiency rankings. The Mountaineers are top 5 in defensive efficiency and force the most turnovers per possession in the NCAA. Bob Huggins’ squad will give teams fits in the tourney.
Wichita State Shockers
Current odds: +10000, Implied Probability: 0.99%
Shockers win the tournament 3.0% of the time
The Shockers are severely under-seeded. Wichita State is one of ten teams to rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Greg Marshall’s team is the most likely double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16 (38.0%) and have the 12th best odds to make the Final Four despite playing in the same region as North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA. The Shockers have longshot odds but they are real title contenders.
Other teams with value (at least 1% difference between implied odds and projected chance): Virginia +4000 and Florida +4600
There are 32 Pro System picks for the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
Below is each team’s odds and projected chance to cut down the nets.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Projected Chance|
|Saint Mary's CA||12000||0.83||1.4|
|East Tennessee State||200000||.05||0|
|New Mexico State||500000||.02||0|
|Florida Gulf Coast||500000||.02||0|
|Mount St. Mary's||999999||.01||0|
|North Carolina Central||999999||.01||0|
|South Dakota State||999999||.01||0|