The first week of the NCAA tournament is in the books. There were no buzzer beaters but still plenty of drama. Here is a recap of all the betting action.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 25-25 (50.0%) ATS
  • Betting against the public (<40% of tickets): 19-9 (67.9%) ATS
  • Favorites getting <40% of bets: 6-1 ATS

ATS results by seed

SeedATS Record

OVERs went 34-17-1 (66.7%)

This already the most profitable year for OVERs in our database

Biggest Money-line Upsets

USC +315 vs. SMU

 Elijah Stewart hit the game winning three pointer with 37 seconds left to give USC a 66-65 win over 6-seed SMU on Friday. The Mustangs were a dark horse candidate in many brackets to reach the Sweet 16.

 South Carolina +270 vs. Duke

 South Carolina rallied from a ten-point deficit to score 65 points on the Blue Devils in the second half. It had been 44 years since the Gamecocks had won an NCAA tournament game, now they are in the Sweet 16.

Xavier +270 vs. Florida State

 Trevon Bluiett led Xavier with 29 points as the Musketeers dominated 3-seed Florida State 91-66. This is the second straight year that Xavier is in the Sweet 16.

 Wisconsin +213 vs. Villanova

 Wisconsin is back in the Sweet 16 for the four straight year and the tournaments top overall seed and defending champions are out. The Badgers, 21 in kenpom’s rankings, were underseeded and they showed why against the Wildcats.

Mental Lapse

 Northwestern’s first-ever NCAA tournament victory came in part thanks to a mental lapse by Vandy guard Matthew Fisher-Davis. He fouled the Wildcats Bryant McIntosh with less than 15 seconds to play for no reason. Ended up costing his team the game.

 NCAA Error

 The NCAA admitted officials made a mistake by not calling goaltending on Gonzaga’s Zach Collins. It was a mistake but there was nearly five minutes left in the game. Northwestern shouldn’t have been playing Gonzaga anyways (see Mental Lapse) and the fans need to stop crying about it.

 Bad Beats

 These two plays swung the betting results for countless fans depending on which side of the game you were one.

Jawun Evans hits pointless three pointer as time expires to give Oklahoma State bettors the cover. Only 34% of bets were on the Cowboys.

USC opened +6.5 but 59% of bets were on the Trojans and the team closed as 5.5 point underdogs. The buzzer beater got USC the cover.

Fading Trendy Underdogs

One of the most profitable NCAA tournament Pro Systems is a contrarian strategy. Public money floods the betting markets during March Madness and casual fans are always looking for an upset. This often leads to square bettors backing trendy underdogs. By following this Pro System and fading these popular underdog teams you would have gone 95-63 (60.1%) ATS, +$2,694 since 2005.

This Pro System is 8-3 (73%) ATS in the 2017 NCAA tournament.

Start Fading Trendy Underdogs now!