The first week of the NCAA tournament is in the books. There were no buzzer beaters but still plenty of drama. Here is a recap of all the betting action.
- Favorites went 25-25 (50.0%) ATS
- Betting against the public (<40% of tickets): 19-9 (67.9%) ATS
- Favorites getting <40% of bets: 6-1 ATS
ATS results by seed
OVERs went 34-17-1 (66.7%)
This already the most profitable year for OVERs in our database
Biggest Money-line Upsets
USC +315 vs. SMU
— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 17, 2017
Elijah Stewart hit the game winning three pointer with 37 seconds left to give USC a 66-65 win over 6-seed SMU on Friday. The Mustangs were a dark horse candidate in many brackets to reach the Sweet 16.
South Carolina +270 vs. Duke
The South Carolina locker room looked like a whole lot of fun after their win over Duke. pic.twitter.com/Tx0gZV1vvp
— March Madness TV (@MarchMadnessTV) March 20, 2017
South Carolina rallied from a ten-point deficit to score 65 points on the Blue Devils in the second half. It had been 44 years since the Gamecocks had won an NCAA tournament game, now they are in the Sweet 16.
Xavier +270 vs. Florida State
— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 19, 2017
Trevon Bluiett led Xavier with 29 points as the Musketeers dominated 3-seed Florida State 91-66. This is the second straight year that Xavier is in the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin +213 vs. Villanova
Nigel Hayes with the game winner! Wisconsin upsets #1 Villanova! pic.twitter.com/ikywAMWHg4
— LeadingNCAA ™ (@LeadingNCAA) March 18, 2017
Wisconsin is back in the Sweet 16 for the four straight year and the tournaments top overall seed and defending champions are out. The Badgers, 21 in kenpom’s rankings, were underseeded and they showed why against the Wildcats.
Didn't expect this to be our first epic finish video… But Vandy's idiot foul late is much better with "Titanic music!" ???????????? pic.twitter.com/5Qmm13O1G8
— ????Titanic Hoops???? (@TitanicHoops) March 16, 2017
Northwestern’s first-ever NCAA tournament victory came in part thanks to a mental lapse by Vandy guard Matthew Fisher-Davis. He fouled the Wildcats Bryant McIntosh with less than 15 seconds to play for no reason. Ended up costing his team the game.
— Business Insider (@businessinsider) March 19, 2017
The NCAA admitted officials made a mistake by not calling goaltending on Gonzaga’s Zach Collins. It was a mistake but there was nearly five minutes left in the game. Northwestern shouldn’t have been playing Gonzaga anyways (see Mental Lapse) and the fans need to stop crying about it.
These two plays swung the betting results for countless fans depending on which side of the game you were one.
— Chat Sports NCAA (@ChatNCAA) March 17, 2017
Jawun Evans hits pointless three pointer as time expires to give Oklahoma State bettors the cover. Only 34% of bets were on the Cowboys.
— Tom Downey (@WhatGoingDowney) March 20, 2017
USC opened +6.5 but 59% of bets were on the Trojans and the team closed as 5.5 point underdogs. The buzzer beater got USC the cover.
Fading Trendy Underdogs
One of the most profitable NCAA tournament Pro Systems is a contrarian strategy. Public money floods the betting markets during March Madness and casual fans are always looking for an upset. This often leads to square bettors backing trendy underdogs. By following this Pro System and fading these popular underdog teams you would have gone 95-63 (60.1%) ATS, +$2,694 since 2005.
This Pro System is 8-3 (73%) ATS in the 2017 NCAA tournament.