The 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs is about to begin. The Warriors and Cavs are big favorites but how have teams performed by seed in the postseason?
There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
1-seed vs. 8-seed
1-seeds are 91-34 straight-up in the 1st Round since 2005. Only five 8-seeds have upset the top seed in a series but it has happened three times since 2007 (Warriors over Mavericks 2007, Grizzlies over Spurs 2011 and 76ers over Bulls 2012).
1-seeds have been favored in 113 out of 122 1st Round games since 2005. The top seeds perform better at home as favorites going 35-29 ATS than on the road (22-27 ATS).
8-seeds have the most success against division rivals in the 1st Round: 20-14 ATS
2-seed vs. 7-seed
2-seeds are 92-32 straight-up vs. 7-seeds in the 1st Round. Last 7-seed to win a series was the Spurs in 2010.
2-seeds are a ridiculous 72-45 (61%) ATS since 2005 in the 1st Round. It hasn’t happened often but as underdogs 2-seeds have gone 11-5 ATS.
When 2-seeds get 40% or less of the spread bets they have gone 8-2 ATS.
3-seed vs. 6-seed
3-seeds win less than 60% of their First Round games (82-59) since 2005. As underdogs, 3-seeds are 14-25 (35.9%) straight-up.
3-seeds have a losing against-the-spread record as favorites and dogs. 3-seeds have been .500 or worse against-the-spread in five straight years.
6-seeds have gone 15-8 ATS when they get 60% or more of the bets and 25-15 ATS vs. division opponents.
4-seed vs. 5-seed
Seeding doesn’t matter much in this matchup. 5-seeds have gone 73-66 straight-up since 2005. The team that is favored tends to win. Favored 4-seeds are 51-31 (62.2%), favored 5-seeds are 42-15 (73.7%).
Since 2010, 4-seeds are 25-40 (38.5%) ATS vs. 5-seeds and 15-27 (35.7%) ATS as a favorite in that time frame.
Since 2010, betting 5-seeds getting less than 50% of spread bets vs. 4-seeds has gone 20-9 (69.0%) ATS
Well Rested Home Teams
This Pro System is 85-48 (64%) ATS, +32.59 units all-time