NBA home teams are on a remarkable run this postseason. Counting last night’s Thunder win over the Warriors, home teams have now covered 10 straight games in the postseason and are hitting at a remarkable 68.6% rate ATS throughout the playoffs. Now you might not have heard of this trend until now. That’s because it only applies to the first half of games.
Most recreational bettors don’t pay much attention to alternate betting lines including betting games on the first half. But with Bet Labs, it’s easy to analyze first half and second half data as well as the full game. All of the stats I gave in the first paragraph are from this simple system:
While that is already a ridiculous win rate, the system can actually be improved by eliminating games that the public is heavy on for the full game:
And just in case you are wondering what the graph looks like for a 77% win-rate over that time:
Great! Let’s all bet home teams in the first half and get rich forever, right? Not exactly. One of the important things for all Bet Labs users to do is to separate what is interesting to what is meaningful. A 70-game sample over one postseason can be an outlier. By changing the season filter, you’ll find that there hasn’t been a profitable postseason in six years.
Bet Labs is a great tool to quickly do research but you still have to sift through all through the interesting to determine what is meaningful. It’s up to each individual to determine what that threshold is, but in my opinion, this is just a hot streak for home teams but we’ll definitely keep an eye on it.