The NBA’s second half is underway following a relatively quiet trade deadline. How has the title landscape changed and which teams are offering value to win the NBA championship?
To find out we look at what each team’s current odds are to win the NBA title at 5Dimes and compare that to the projected odds at fivethirtyeight.com. For example, Golden State is the favorite at -165, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Warriors they would need to win it all 62.3% (which is 165/(165+100)) of the time. The Dubs are projected to win the title 57.0% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -165 odds.
San Antonio Spurs
Current odds: +900, Implied Probability: 10.0%
Spurs win title 14.0% of the time
Coach Popovich’s team is always underrated. The Warriors have the best record in the league, the Cavs have LeBron and are the defending champions but the Spurs sit just behind Golden State in the West and no one talking about them. Kawhi Leonard is an MVP candidate and one of the best two-way players in the NBA. He leads a team that is deep and talented – don’t sleep on the Spurs.
Current odds: +3300, Implied Probability: 2.9%
Celtics win title 5.0% of the time
Boston didn’t make any splashy moves at the deadline but just three games back of the Cavs the team didn’t really need to. The Celtics have a solid group of players, a great coach and decent shot at reaching the NBA Finals. LeBron has dominated the East for years but this could be the season another team wins the conference.
Current odds: +5000, Implied Probability: 2.0%
Wizards win title 3.0% of the time
The starting lineup for the Wizards is one of the best in the league thanks to the combination of John Wall and Bradley Beal, the best backcourt duo in the East. Washington isn’t as deep as other squads, that’s why they are longshots to win the title, but in the playoffs starters play more minutes and benches get shorter. The Wizards are a dark horse candidate to win the title.
NBA ATS Pro Systems are 131-116, +$910 this season
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Other teams with value: Utah Jazz +8250 and Memphis Grizzlies +15000
Below is each team’s chance of winning the title
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|