NBA Betting Review 12.1.16

westbrook

A month into the season, the Cavs and Warriors are leading their respective conferences, the Sixers are bringing up the rear and all is right in the NBA universe. In case you missed it, here is a recap of all the betting action from the last week.

Betting Trends (11/24 to 11/30)

  • Favorites went 28-22 (56.0%) ATS
  • Home teams went 23-27 (46.0%) ATS
  • Overs went 28-22 (56.0%)
  • Teams with winning records went 21-21 (50.0%) ATS
  • Betting against the public (<50% of tickets): 22-28 (44.0%) ATS

Biggest Money-line Upsets

Magic (+798) at Spurs

Orlando snapped the Spurs nine-game winning streak on Tuesday beating San Antonio 95-83.The Magic forced the Spurs into a season-high 19 turnovers as Gregg Popovich’s team has now lost four times at home this season after falling just once at AT&T Center in 2015-16.

Pacers (+622) vs. Clippers

Glenn Robinson III and Myles Turner each scored 17 points and the Pacers forced 20 turnovers in a 91-70 victory over Los Angeles. The Clippers scored less than 80 points for the first time in the Doc Rivers era costing anyone who bet them -12 dearly.

Nets (+516) vs. Clippers

Doc Rivers lost his temper after being tossed in the Clippers 127-122 overtime loss to Brooklyn. The Nets rallied from down 18 to pull the upset. It was the third straight loss for the Clips.

Russ & the Triple-Double

Russell Westbrook became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double into December. The OKC star is averaging 31.2 points, 10.5 rebounds and 11.3 assists through 20 games. The Thunder are 7-2 (6-3 ATS) when he records a triple-double.

Bros Before Defense

J.R. Smith made news for all the wrong reasons this week. The Cavs guard gave an in-game hug to Milwaukee Bucks bench player Jason Terry leading to a wide-open dunk. The Cleveland organization including coach Tyronn Lue called the play ‘embarrassing’ but as they say, “bros before defense.”

Trend Highlight – Fading Tired Home Teams

Home teams after often overvalued in the NBA and casual bettors rarely track how many games a team has played in consecutive days or a short period of time. You can find value by fading tired home teams.

This Pro System “Fading Tired Home Teams” is +416-319 (56.6%) ATS.

A game that matched this system in the last week was Detroit at Charlottle. The Hornets were playing their fourth game in five nights and were small favorites at home. However, the Pistons routed the tired-looking Hornets 112-89 easily covering as 3.5 point dogs.

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