The Super Bowl is yet to be played but it is never too early to start thinking about March Madness. Which team should you bet to capture the college basketball championship?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, Kentucky is the favorite at 5/1, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Wildcats they would need to win it all 16.7% (which is 1/(5+1)) of the time. Coach Calipari’s crew is projected to win March Madness 16.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 5/1 odds.
Note: our simulation is based off of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology and uses the Ken Pom rating system for the simulation.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: 9/1, Implied Probability: 10.0%
Zags wins the tournament 14.1% of the time
The Zags are the last remaining undefeated team in DI basketball. Mark Few’s team is deep and talented. Gonzaga has a 7-footer in Przemek Karnowski, NBA draft prospects in Zach Collins and cleaned up with transfers from big programs (Johnathan Williams, Jordan Mathews and Nigel Williams-Goss). They might play in the West Coast Conference but come Monday, Gonzaga is likely to be the new No. 1 team in the country.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current odds: 20/1, Implied Probability: 4.8%
WVU wins the tournament 6.3% of the time
West Virginia snapped Kansas’ 18-game winning streak by beating the Jayhawks 85-69 on Tuesday night. WVU has now beaten the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams this season. “Press Virginia” can cause fits for opposing offenses. The Mountaineers lead the country in turnovers forced per game. A strong defense is a good recipe for a deep tourney run.
Current odds: 22/1, Implied Probability: 4.3%
Bears win the tournament 5.5% of the time
Not much was expected from the Bears this season but that all changed after going from unranked in the preseason to No. 1. Baylor’s stay on top of the polls didn’t last long but with an 18-1 record this team is legit. Scott Drew’s group has shown poise going 6-1 this season when trailing at halftime.
Other teams with value: Louisville 20/1, UVA 25/1, Florida 80/1, Cincy 125/1 and SMU 250/1
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Below is each team with at least a 1-in-1000 chance of cutting down the nets.
|Team||Seed||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|
|Saint Marys CA||6||80/1||1.2||0.4|