MLB True Standings

PennantRace

April is in the history books and we are at a good point to assess all 30 MLB teams.  Although it’s important to remember, we’re still only 15% through the long baseball season.

This early into the season, we can’t blindly trust the win-loss records of each team.  So instead we’re look at their pythagorean record based on each team’s run differential.  But there is still another adjustment to make.  Each team’s schedule can play a large part in their results so far.  But once we adjust for run differential and schedule, we have a more accurate depiction of where every team stands.

Below are each team’s adjusted win percentage so far this season.  Please note that this is not projecting where teams will finish at the end of the season, it’s simply a measure of what the have done thus far.

1. Cubs 77.0%

When adjusting for run differential, the Cubs have actually been unlucky to only be 17-6.  Their schedule has been easy but they are still the team to beat.

2. Nationals 64.8%

The Nats have played well, but not quite as well as their actual win percentage of 70.8%.

3. White Sox 62.9%

The White Sox have an 18-8 record and have actually played a schedule that is slightly harder than average.

4. Mets 62.6%

The Mets have benefitted from an easy early schedule but are still a top team in the National League.

5. Cardinals 59.8%

The Cardinals have been the unluckiest team according to Pythagorean Wins and rank in the top 5 of the true standings despite currently sitting in the bottom half with a 12-13 record.

6. Orioles 58.6%

The Orioles are 14-10 and their schedule has been slightly harder than average.

7. Mariners 58.4%

Based on run differential, the Mariners should be 15-9 instead of their actual record of 13-11.

8. Rangers 56.4%

The Rangers 14-11 and the numbers say that they should be 14-11.  They are WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.

9. Red Sox 55.5%

Boston’s run differential matches their play but they have played one of the easier schedules in the AL.

10. Indians 54.4%

The Indians make a big jump based on a tough schedule and some bad luck.

11. Tigers 53.0%

Remember how I said the Red Sox had played one of the easier schedules?  The Tigers have played the easiest schedule in the American League.

12. Blue Jays 52.3%

The Blue Jays have played better than their 12-14 record suggests.

13. Pirates 51.8%

The Pirates drop due to a very easy schedule early on.

14. Rays 51.4%

The Rays have played the second toughest schedule in the AL but have held in there with an 11-13 record.

15. Angels 51.2%

The Angels have played the toughest schedule in the AL and have gone 12-13.

16. Giants 49.1%

San Francisco is only 13-13 and have had one of the easier schedules in the NL.

17. Royals 48.7%

Kansas City has an easier than average schedule and has had one win worth of luck according to run differential.

18. Dodgers 47.7%

The Dodgers have played the absolute easiest schedule in the MLB so far and wasn’t able to take advantage as they currently sit at 13-13.

19. Diamondbacks 47.3%

Arizona is off to a disappointing 12-15 start after they made a bevy of offseason moves that many thought would put them near the top of the NL standings.

20. Rockies 46.8%

The Rockies have allowed .3 runs more per game than they have scored but have managed a 12-12 record so far.

21. Athletics 46.3%

Like Colorado above, the A’s have managed a .500 record despite allowing more runs than they have allowed.

22. Marlins 44.7%

Another team with a .500 record that has a run differential that says they should be worse.

23. Phillies 42.5%

Philadelphia has been the luckiest team in terms of run differential in the MLB.  At this point, their 15-10 record is a mirage.

24. Reds 39.6%

Cincinnati has played the toughest schedule thus far (including 6 games against the Cubs) but they are still a really bad baseball team regardless.

25. Twins 38.8%

Minnesota is sitting at 7-18, which is terrible, but they should actually be 9-16, which is still terrible.

26. Braves 38.4%

The Braves have played the 2nd toughest schedule but still expect to be a really bad team.

27. Padres 36.8%

The Padres are right where they should be in the standings; near the bottom.

28. Yankees 36.2%

The Bronx Bombers should have been slightly better than their 8-15, but not by much.

29. Astros 35.7%

One of the biggest surprises of the season so far, the Astros have a terrible record and their play justifies it.

30. Brewers 35.2%

Not a surprise as Milwaukee is preparing for a rebuild.

 

 

 

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