There are three elimination games in baseball’s postseason on Monday. The Red Sox and Yankees forced a Game 4 with wins on Sunday and the Dbacks will try to do the same against the Dodgers in the nightcap. Each team is at home, how have MLB teams performed in elimination games?
Since 2005, not including Wild Card games, there have been 83 teams that have faced elimination at home. All home teams have won 55.9% of their games in the playoffs. Do teams with their backs against the wall perform better? No. Home teams facing elimination have gone 40-43 (48.2%) straight-up, -13.64 units.
New York (-160) is favored over Cleveland but Boston (+111) and Arizona (-100) are each underdogs. Home favorites in the postseason are 174-131 (57.0%) straight-up while underdogs have a 54-49 (52.4%) record.
Favorites at home in elimination games have gone 34-31 (52.3%), -8.0 units. Home underdogs on the brink of elimination are 6-12 (33.3%) straight-up, -5.64 units.
Casual bettors like to believe that teams trying to stave off elimination will try harder but it’s not true. Whether they’re favored to win or lose, teams facing elimination haven’t performed any better than the rest of teams at home in the playoffs.
Betting Against the Public
This MLB Playoff Pro System is +48.42 units since 2005