MLB Overs in September


We are now into the heart of the football season and it’s easy to forget about baseball until the playoffs start in October.  But there is an interesting trend for MLB totals in September that involve teams that are nowhere near the playoff race.

When looking at home teams with a win percentage of 40% or less, the Over has hit 54.4% of the time.  Here are the system parameters in Bet Labs:


As a reference, there are currently only two teams in the bigs with a win percentage that qualifies: Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.

You’ll notice that the theory is also blank in the screenshot of the system.  Admittedly, I can’t put my finger on why this system would work.  Do the bad teams use more September callups in their bullpens?  Are they trying out players at different positions for the following season?  I have a few hypotheses, but for now I don’t have a solid answer for why this system works.

But I’ll definitely continue to monitor this system as the results have produced, including going 13-3 so far this season.  If you would like to create your own systems, you can do so for free at  If you want access to our PRO systems and current matches for this week’s games, sign up for a 6-day trial here.


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