MLB First Half Betting Recap


The American League has won the All-Star game and will have home field advantage in the World Series.  Giancarlo Stanton hit a boatload of dingers to win the Home Run Derby.  That means we’re ready for the second “half” of the 2016 MLB season.  But before we look ahead, let’s take a look back at what has happened so far betting on baseball in 2016.

The Dogs Aren’t Barking

Fave Dog

Betting $100 on every underdog this season would have resulted in a loss of over $6000 this season as you can see above.  This continues the trend from last season as 2015 was the worst season in our database for MLB dogs, losing over 94 units with a -3.9% ROI.

The Cubs Came Back to Earth

Cubs graph

The Cubs took advantage of an easy schedule early on and looked to be unstoppable.  Some were even questioning if they would set the record for most wins in a season.  Their profitability remained relatively steady until June 19th.  Since that date, the Cubs are 6-15 and lost nearly 12 units over that span.

The Rays Have a Free Fall of their Own

Rays graph

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the worst team to bet on this season.  If you had bet $100 on the Rays every game this season, you would be crying in the corner of a very lonely room wondering what you are doing with your life.

Chris Tillman Has Been a Great Bet

The Orioles are 16-3 this season in Tillman’s starts for a league best 11.7 units won.  But this isn’t a one-year wonder for Tillman, as he has been the best starting pitcher to back over the past five seasons combined:

Tillman List

For those wondering, the worst pitcher to bet has been Chris Archer (5-14, -9.1 units) which has been a big contribution to that awful Rays graph above.

Overs have been Crushing in Non-Division Games

Overs System

Games have gone over the closing total nearly 55% of the time in non-division games this season.  With the familiarity between divisional opponents, those games tend to be closer and by avoiding those games, Over bettors have made a nice profit this season.

Will dogs bite back in the second half of the season?  Will the Cubs get back on the right track?  Can Tillman keep this up for the Orioles?  There are a lot of questions to be answered in the upcoming months, now we get to sit back and watch.


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