Baseball hit the pause button on the 2017 season for the All-Star break. Before action resumes on Friday let’s take a look at the division races and determine which teams offer value to finish on top.
To determine if a team has value we created a consensus projection using FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus and then compared the simulation results to the current odds at 5Dimes for each team to win its respective division.
Cleveland Indians
Current odds: -360, Implied Probability: 78.3%
Indians win the AL Central 92.6% of the time
Of the division leaders, Cleveland has the worst record and the smallest lead. Not great, but there is reason to believe the Indians can play better in the second half. The Tribe have a +74 run differential, sixth best in baseball. By WAR, Cleveland is second in pitching and seventh in hitting. The Indians are going to win the division in back-to-back years for the first time since 1998-99.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: -975, Implied Probability: 90.7%
Dodgers win the NL West 98.9% of the time
The Dodgers have outscored their opponents by 163 runs this year, that is the best figure in National League history heading into the All-Star break. L.A. has a comfy 7.5 game lead and though you have to lay $975 to win $100, there is value backing Clayton Kershaw and crew.
Friday: Dodgers at Marlins
This Pro System is 737-587 (56%), +100.2 units since 2005
St. Louis Cardinals
Current odds: +700, Implied Probability: 12.5%
Cardinals win the NL Central 18.9% of the time
The Redbirds have been inconsistent all season leading to a sub-.500 record at the break. Yet, the team’s starting rotation has the fifth best ERA (3.90) in the big leagues and the defense per FanGraph’s is 23 runs above average, tied fourth best in baseball. Just 5.5 games back of the Brewers in a weak division it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cards made a run in the second half.
Other teams with value: Rays +1475, Astros -14500, Marlins +7000
MLB Division Projections and Betting Odds
| Division | Team | BP | FG | Consensus | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | Red Sox | 59.3 | 76.7 | 68 | -258 |
| Yankees | 26.8 | 14.4 | 20.6 | +330 | |
| Rays | 12.9 | 5.5 | 9.2 | +1475 | |
| Orioles | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | +4400 | |
| Blue Jays | 0.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +4400 | |
| AL Central | Indians | 90.8 | 94.3 | 92.55 | -360 |
| Royals | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.95 | +580 | |
| Twins | 3.9 | 1.2 | 2.55 | +850 | |
| Tigers | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | +7000 | |
| White Sox | 0.1 | 0 | 0.05 | +8500 | |
| AL West | Astros | 99.9 | 100 | 99.95 | -14500 |
| Rangers | 0.1 | 0 | 0.05 | +17000 | |
| Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | +18500 | |
| Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | +21000 | |
| Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | +62500 | |
| NL East | Nationals | 96.8 | 97.6 | 97.2 | -4700 |
| Braves | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.35 | +6500 | |
| Marlins | 2 | 1.3 | 1.65 | +7000 | |
| Mets | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | +7500 | |
| Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | +220000 | |
| NL Central | Cubs | 31 | 53.1 | 42.05 | -113 |
| Brewers | 47.6 | 20.6 | 34.1 | +178 | |
| Cardinals | 16.5 | 21.3 | 18.9 | +700 | |
| Pirates | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | +1800 | |
| Reds | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | +11000 | |
| NL West | Dodgers | 98.3 | 99.4 | 98.85 | -975 |
| Diamondbacks | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.95 | +1035 | |
| Rockies | 0.3 | 0 | 0.15 | +2025 | |
| Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | +110000 | |
| Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | +220000 |
