The MLB division races are heating up. The Astros and Nationals are dominating but the rest of the divisions are up for grabs. Here are the teams with value to win their respective races.
To determine if a team has value we created a consensus projection using FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus and then compared the simulation results to the current odds at 5Dimes for each team to win the division.
The Yankees have a four game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. New York is a -115 favorite to finish on top. The implied probability suggest the Bronx Bombers win the division 53.5% of the time. The consensus odds from the simulations give the Yanks a 58.4% chance, which means there is value at -115 odds.
Minnesota is a surprise team leading the AL Central by a game over the Indians. Few believe the Twins can maintain their winning ways. Cleveland is -495 to repeat as division champs but there is no value on any of these teams to win.
The AL West odds are off the board. Houston (44-21) has a 12-game lead in the division and has crushed its division rivals going 21-9. Unless the Astros stumble down the stretch this division race is over.
Astros vs. Rangers
This Pro System is 235.9 units since 2005
The Nats are -10000 favorites, meaning a bettor would have to wager $10,000 to win $100, to win the NL East. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree there is no value betting on Bryce Harper and Washington. However, you can take the Field (+3500) and get a slight edge.
The defending World Series champions have been a .500 club for most of the season. The Cubbies are 1.5 games back of the Brewers in the standings but the oddsmakers have Chicago as solid favorites (-465) to win the division. Once again, the betting favorite provides no value. The Field in the NL Central is +370, implied odds of 21.3%. The simulations give the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds and Pirates a 35.9% chance of winning the Central, meaning there is value betting the field.
L.A. is a game back of the Rockies but look for the Dodgers to come out on top. The bookmakers list the team as -175 favorites but the simulations suggest the odds should be closer to Dodgers -350. There is value on L.A. to win a fifth straight title.
MLB Division Projections and Betting Odds