The All-Star Game. The Midsummer Classic. Foolish Fan Voting. Whatever you want to call it, the MLB All-Star break is a good time for players, fans, and bettors to take a few days off from the daily grind. A few days to reflect on what the first “half” has already brought and project what the second “half” will bring.
I decided to observe if there was any correlation between betting teams prior to the All-Star break and after. First, I took a look at the top five teams to bet on in the first half of the past five seasons. This isn’t the five teams with the best record at the break, it’s the five teams that have won bettors the most units up to that point. I also displayed the units won if you had faded that team in every game.
2014
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Orioles | 52-42 | +12.95 | 44-24 | +18.93 | -21.84 |
| Mariners | 51-44 | +8.47 | 36-31 | -2.17 | -0.58 |
| Athletics | 59-36 | +8.26 | 29-38 | -21.18 | +25.58 |
| Angels | 57-37 | +7.27 | 41-27 | +6.21 | -11.09 |
| Brewers | 53-43 | +6.56 | 29-37 | -10.15 | +9.50 |
2013
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Pirates | 56-37 | +21.41 | 38-31 | +2.31 | -1.81 |
| Athletics | 56-39 | +10.38 | 40-27 | +5.69 | -5.49 |
| Indians | 51-44 | +9.95 | 41-26 | +5.44 | -15.66 |
| Orioles | 53-43 | +9.32 | 32-34 | -6.63 | +4.99 |
| Cardinals | 57-36 | +8.85 | 40-29 | +0.38 | -6.00 |
2012
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Pirates | 48-37 | +16 | 31-45 | -16.86 | +15.72 |
| Orioles | 45-40 | +13.08 | 48-29 | +23.95 | -20.89 |
| Mets | 46-40 | +10.12 | 28-48 | -17.67 | +17.95 |
| Nationals | 49-34 | +8.22 | 49-30 | +7.65 | -16.45 |
| Athletics | 42-42 | +8.2 | 51-25 | +26.92 | -28.39 |
2011
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Pirates | 47-43 | +13.99 | 25-47 | -13.21 | +12.10 |
| Indians | 47-42 | +8.24 | 33-40 | -8.20 | +2.98 |
| Dbacks | 49-43 | +8 | 45-25 | +16.11 | -18.61 |
| Braves | 54-38 | +7.5 | 35-35 | -7.11 | +6.85 |
| Mets | 46-45 | +7.44 | 31-40 | -4.65 | +5.00 |
2010
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Padres | 51-37 | +15.31 | 39-35 | +1.72 | -1.78 |
| White Sox | 49-38 | +8.93 | 39-36 | +2.45 | -2.03 |
| Mets | 48-40 | +8.92 | 31-43 | -11.26 | +7.80 |
| Rays | 54-34 | +7.31 | 42-32 | -0.60 | -2.24 |
| Reds | 49-41 | +7.12 | 42-30 | +5.76 | -10.03 |
Over the last five years, blindly betting the top five teams at the All-Star break would have resulted in winning 3.83 units. While the small number of units won isn’t worth writing home about, it does provide more support towards the momentum hypothesis rather than the idea that teams will regress towards the average. If you had bought into the regression theory and faded the best five bets in the first half, you would have lost 54.42 units over that same span.
Now let’s take a look at the converse. Here are the worst five teams in terms of units won over the last five seasons and how they fared over the remainder of the season.
2014
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Rangers | 38-57 | -20.81 | 29-38 | +2.37 | -2.65 |
| Rockies | 40-55 | -15.41 | 26-40 | -12.56 | +1.22 |
| Rays | 44-53 | -15.14 | 33-32 | -2.71 | +2.62 |
| Red Sox | 43-52 | -14.92 | 28-39 | -6.14 | +4.71 |
| Dbacks | 40-56 | -12.28 | 24-42 | -16.20 | +8.59 |
2013
| 2013 | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| White Sox | 37-55 | -16.28 | 26-44 | -13.79 | +8.23 |
| Brewers | 38-56 | -15.88 | 36-32 | +10.81 | -11.09 |
| Giants | 43-51 | -14.29 | 33-35 | -0.58 | +3.46 |
| Angels | 44-49 | -11.37 | 34-35 | -1.48 | -2.42 |
| Tigers | 52-42 | -8.73 | 41-27 | -0.70 | -2.27 |
2012
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Phillies | 37-50 | -18.85 | 43-31 | +6.01 | -9.16 |
| Rockies | 33-52 | -13.85 | 31-45 | -3.06 | +0.34 |
| Astros | 33-53 | -12.58 | 22-54 | -18.96 | +8.59 |
| Padres | 34-53 | -12.39 | 42-33 | +15.5 | -16.44 |
| Cubs | 33-52 | -11.3 | 28-49 | -15.19 | +5.67 |
2011
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Astros | 30-62 | -25.24 | 26-44 | -7.8 | +2.1 |
| Cubs | 37-55 | -15.96 | 34-36 | +2.1 | -4.59 |
| Athletics | 39-53 | -15.86 | 35-35 | +2.91 | -4.29 |
| Orioles | 36-52 | -14.23 | 33-41 | +9.06 | -4.3 |
| Rockies | 43-48 | -11.34 | 30-41 | -11.63 | +6.76 |
2010
| Team | 1st Half Record | 1st Half Units | 2nd Half Record | 2nd Half Units | 2nd Half Fade |
| Mariners | 35-53 | -18.69 | 26-48 | -16.01 | +10.36 |
| Dbacks | 34-55 | -18.18 | 31-42 | -6.78 | +0.88 |
| Orioles | 29-59 | -14.03 | 37-37 | +14.82 | -12.2 |
| Cubs | 39-50 | -12.57 | 36-37 | +6.54 | -3.2 |
| Pirates | 30-58 | -12.14 | 27-47 | -10.03 | +5.9 |
Once again, the data suggests that betting-wise you should follow what you have already seen. Betting on the worst five teams to bounce back has lost an astounding 73.5 units. Fading these bad teams hasn’t been profitable either, but at -3.18 units it’s definitely more tolerable for your bankroll.
While you may think it’s a waste of time to determine that betting on good teams is better than fading them, remember that these results are based on the closing line at Pinnacle, not just Win-Loss records. The idea that teams will regress towards the mean in terms of betting profit doesn’t seem to hold water given the data above.
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