One of the most profitable strategies in sports betting is to fade the public. Betting against the public works for full MLB games as well as for 1st 5 Innings bets.

To build our contrarian 1st 5 Innings system we will begin by looking at just the favorites. Blindly betting favorites or underdogs has been a losing proposition but moneyline favorites have performed better.

Then we are going to use the “Moneyline %” filter, which allows us to filter for the number of bets on the game.

By looking at teams that receive 40% or fewer (betting against the public) of the moneyline bets we can improve the systems win rate, yet we are still not profitable.

The last filter to add is “Moneyline Change Open to Close”. We want games where despite a team getting 40% or less of the moneyline bets the line has actually moved against them and they have become bigger favorites.

MLB 1st 5 Innings moneyline favorites receiving 40% or less of the bets that have seen negative line movement have gone 849-510 (62.5%) ML, +35.6 units since 2009.

Bet Labs users can start receiving current game matches by copying this system from our Think Tank.


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