We are just 18 days away from Selection Sunday when the committee will reveal which 68 teams have made the field for this year’s basketball championship. We have a pretty good idea of which squads will be in but what teams are offering value to win March Madness?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, North Carolina is +975, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Tar Heels they would need to win it all 9.3% (which is 100/(975+100)) of the time. UNC is projected to win March Madness 7.9% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +975 odds.
Current odds: +575, Implied Probability: 14.8%
Zags wins the tournament 21.3% of the time
Perfection. Gonzaga is two wins away from finishing the regular season with an unblemished record. The Bulldogs have their doubters because they play in the soft WCC but when you adjust for opponent the Zags are top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency per kenpom.com. Mark Few’s team is 21.3% likely to win it all, that is almost as good as all ten ACC teams combined (23.9%).
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current odds: +2800, Implied Probability: 3.5%
WVU wins the tournament 6.3% of the time
Bob Huggins gave WVU fans a scare when he fell to his knees on the court during the Mountaineers home game against Texas on Monday. The coach was fine but the real shock would be if West Virginia could make a deep tournament run. WVU is 8th in defensive efficiency and Press-Virginia could use its pressure defense to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2010.
Wichita State Shockers
Current odds: +10000, Implied Probability: 0.99%
WSU win the tournament 1.9% of the time
The Shockers are back in the top 25. Wichita State has won 11 in a row and has been smashing its competition. If you want a longshot to bet you could do worse than the best team from the Missouri Valley Conference.
Other teams with value: Florida +2000, Virginia +2500, Baylor +2500, SMU +8000, Oklahoma State +30000
Selection Sunday is just 18 days away
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Below is each team with at least a 1-in-100 chance of cutting down the nets.
|Team||Odds||Implied Chance||Proj. Chance|
|Saint Marys CA||8000||1.2||0.9|